2028 Presidential Polls: Harris and Vance Lead Their Respective Sides Following Trump's Exclusion

The U.S. electoral landscape is reshaping ahead of the 2028 elections. The constitutional ban preventing Donald Trump from running for a third term creates a vacancy in the presidential race, fueling a rapid contest within both parties to fill the space left by the Republican. Presidential polls from January-February 2026 already offer a revealing picture of how Democratic and Republican candidates are positioning themselves at this stage.

Democratic Competition Reflected in Presidential Polls

Within the Democratic Party, the fight for the nomination shows a divided leadership. According to data aggregated by RealClear Polling (RCP), former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with an average of 28.3% nationwide, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom with 20.7%.

However, individual presidential polls reveal important nuances. The Yahoo/YouGov survey from February 2026 places Newsom slightly ahead: 19% versus Harris’s 18% among registered Democratic voters. Measures like Echelon Insights even give Newsom a lead of up to six points over the former vice president.

The rest of the contenders show a fragmented support base:

• Pete Buttigieg: averages 9.3% according to RCP, reaching 13% in Yahoo/YouGov
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.1% in the national average, 12% in individual polls
• Mark Kelly: 5.8% in RCP, 9% in Yahoo/YouGov
• Josh Shapiro: tied with Kelly at 5.8%
• JB Pritzker: 4.6% in the average
• Cory Booker, Andy Beshear, and Gretchen Whitmer: around 1-3%

Notably, 19% of surveyed Democrats remain undecided about their preferences for 2028, indicating the fluidity of these presidential polls at this early stage.

Vance Dominates the Republican Side According to Presidential Polls

In the Republican Party, Trump’s forced absence clears the way for new leadership. Vice President JD Vance emerges as the undisputed favorite for the nomination.

National presidential polls show Vance with a commanding 28-point lead over his closest competitors. In the New Hampshire primaries, his dominance is even more evident: 55% support, a 47-point gap over second place.

The rest of the Republican contenders are in single digits:

• Marco Rubio: 8%
• Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: 6.5% each
• Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
• Ted Cruz: 0.5%

Other figures like Rand Paul (5%), Vivek Ramaswamy (3-4%), Tim Scott (1-3%), and Josh Hawley (1%) have marginal presence according to these presidential polls.

The Legal Barrier Blocking Trump

The obstacle separating Donald Trump from a new candidacy is not political but constitutional. The 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, explicitly prohibits “any person from being elected president more than twice.”

Trump took office on January 20, 2017, and concluded his first term in 2021 after losing the election to Joe Biden. In November 2024, he won again against Kamala Harris, beginning his second term on January 20, 2025, which he currently holds.

This limitation was established after Franklin D. Roosevelt won four consecutive elections, a precedent that worried lawmakers at the time. To amend this amendment would require surpassing two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress and ratification by the states—an almost impossible path in today’s political climate.

The 2028 cycle presidential polls confirm that both parties are moving toward a completely redesigned contest, where Trump’s absence sets the stage for the upcoming competition.