When the Standard reshapes the market: Bitcoin under pressure amid macroeconomic doubts and ETF outflows

Standard Chartered analysts have revised their outlook for Bitcoin downward, outlining a short-term landscape characterized by volatility and pressures on multiple fronts. According to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, the market is experiencing turbulence driven by a combination of factors: waning investor appetite, macroeconomic uncertainties, and warning signals from the U.S. economy. The cryptocurrency market has seen significant corrections, with Bitcoin now fluctuating around $69,410—up from recent lows of $60,008 but still far from more ambitious targets.

Reasons Behind Standard’s Reassessment of the Cryptocurrency Market

U.S. Federal Reserve forecasts have undergone a dramatic shift. While market participants initially expected interest rate cuts to boost demand for alternative assets, expectations have gradually diminished. This change in direction has triggered a wave of uncertainty in global markets, directly affecting sentiment toward cryptocurrencies.

Standard Chartered has officially announced its revised price forecasts: the target for the end of 2026 has been lowered from $150,000 to $100,000. Even more notably, the bank has abandoned its previous expectation of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2025. These downward revisions reflect a more cautious assessment of market dynamics, where macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on institutional investors’ decisions.

Double Pressure: Fewer ETFs and Reduced Institutional Demand

Two specific phenomena have amplified pressures on the market. First, substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are suppressing demand. Since the October 2025 peak, collective Bitcoin holdings via ETFs have contracted by about 100,000 coins. Many investors who bought around $90,000 are now sitting on unrealized losses, raising concerns about further selling pressure if market sentiment deteriorates further.

Meanwhile, institutional demand has also waned. corporate operators and corporate treasurers have significantly reduced their digital asset allocations, signaling a retreat from the large-scale buying that previously characterized the market. Kendrick highlighted that institutional inflows no longer hold their previous decisive influence, leaving ETFs as the primary driver of price dynamics.

Standard Chartered’s analysis shows that approximately 50% of circulating Bitcoin is currently in profit—a moderate percentage compared to previous bear cycles, but indicative of a depressed market where selling pressure remains a real threat.

A Depressed but Resilient Market: Standard’s Long-Term Perspective

Despite immediate challenges, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term stance. Unlike previous cycles, recent price corrections have not triggered critical situations on trading platforms. On-chain activity analysis continues to show positive dynamics, suggesting underlying resilience within the ecosystem that supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Ethereum has not escaped turbulence, currently trading at $2,050, with speculation about testing $1,400 if pressures intensify. However, Standard Chartered remains firmly convinced of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, maintaining its ambitious target of $500,000 by 2030. The market remains volatile in the short term, but the ecosystem’s fundamentals continue to provide reasons for cautious optimism over the long term.