HBAR Within Falling Wedge as March Unfolds: Can $0.10 Spark Recovery?

Hedera’s token entered March 2026 still grappling with the aftermath of a market-wide correction that peaked in late January. The asset has lost nearly 35% since mid-January, and from its November highs, the decline extends beyond 40%. Yet despite this pressure, the technical structure suggests recovery mechanics remain viable. At its current price point of $0.10, HBAR sits at a crossroads where multiple forces—technical patterns, capital flows, and trading volume—will determine whether March brings consolidation or continued weakness.

Market Correction Deepens HBAR Pressure

The sell-off that struck between January 21 and early February left HBAR trading significantly below its earlier peaks. Price momentum has weakened, and retail interest appears subdued. Yet beneath the surface, the broader chart structure has maintained a pattern worth monitoring: a falling wedge formation that has remained intact even as prices compressed lower.

Falling Wedge Pattern: Why Technical Structure Still Matters

Since late October 2025, HBAR has traced out a falling wedge—a technical formation where successively lower highs and lower lows gradually narrow in range. This pattern typically signals that selling pressure is losing steam even as prices continue to decline. What makes this significant is that despite the January crash, the asset has remained within this wedge structure, keeping the long-term rebound case alive.

The measured target of this falling wedge pattern points to roughly 52% upside potential if price eventually breaks above the upper boundary near $0.107. For now, that breakout remains distant, but the structural integrity of this formation suggests that accumulation may be occurring in the background.

Money Flow Divergence: Capital Still Entering Despite Price Declines

A closer look at money flow indicators reveals an intriguing contradiction with price action. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether institutional capital is flowing into or out of an asset, has traced a clear divergence since late December. Between late December and early February, HBAR prices moved lower, but CMF moved higher. This disconnect suggests capital has continued entering the market even as quoted prices fell.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), another measure of accumulation intensity, tells a similar story. Since late November, while HBAR prices have trended downward, MFI has climbed higher—indicating that dip buying has persisted for over two months. The MFI currently sits near 41; a move above 54 would create a higher high and reinforce the bullish divergence.

Together, CMF and MFI suggest dip buyers remain active and willing to accumulate inside the falling wedge structure. Even after a 35% drop, capital has not fully exited the market.

Volume Breakdown: A Cautionary Signal Underneath

Yet money flow optimism masks a developing risk. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which confirms whether rising volume supports price advances, has been weakening. In late January, OBV broke below a key descending trendline and has continued trending lower since October. This creates a bearish divergence—suggesting that upward price moves lack sufficient volume backing.

This volume weakness is confirmed by spot exchange data. From late October through early February, HBAR recorded consistent weekly net outflows, meaning more tokens exited exchanges than entered them. This 14-week streak reflected steady accumulation as price corrected, aligning with the MFI bullish divergence. However, the OBV deterioration continuously capped upside rallies.

Only recently did this pattern shift. On the week ending February 2, HBAR recorded its first meaningful net inflow week since October—approximately $749,000 in net deposits. This reversal ended the three-month outflow streak and suggests a transition from accumulation to potential supply absorption. Yet this also coincides with the OBV breakdown, indicating that even as fresh capital enters exchanges, volume support for rallies remains questionable.

Critical Price Zones Will Determine March Direction

With mixed technical signals, price levels now carry the most analytical weight. On the downside, the key support zone sits near $0.076. As long as HBAR holds above this level and CMF/MFI metrics continue rising, rebound attempts can persist. However, a clean break below $0.076 would signal sellers regaining control—a scenario the deteriorating OBV is already foreshadowing. Below this support, downside targets open near $0.062 and $0.043.

On the upside, the immediate hurdle sits at $0.090, assuming volume improves. This zone has capped rallies since January and represents the first resistance test. Reclaiming $0.090 would signal returning confidence. Above this level, the major resistance test exists near $0.107—the upper edge of the falling wedge. A sustained break above $0.107 would confirm a breakout from the wedge pattern and activate the 52% measured upside target over an extended timeframe.

At the current price of $0.10, HBAR is positioned between the critical $0.090 and $0.107 resistance zones. March will likely determine whether the asset bounces from $0.076 support or breaks through overhead resistance to validate the falling wedge recovery thesis.