US non-farm employment index continues to signal weakness... Data release delayed due to government shutdown

The U.S. non-farm employment index, a key indicator of the American labor market, is sending another cooling signal. Due to an unexpected federal government shutdown, the release schedule has been disrupted, drawing market attention. The September employment data, originally scheduled to be released in early October, is now being announced today.

Delayed September Non-Farm Employment Data and Causes

The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has completely disrupted the schedule for economic statistics releases. The September non-farm employment report, which was supposed to be published on October 3rd, has been delayed due to the government shutdown and is now scheduled for release today. This delay has created a significant time gap for investors and policymakers trying to assess the current state of the labor market.

Cooling Labor Market: Unemployment Rate and Wage Changes

The weakness in the U.S. non-farm employment index is becoming more apparent. Employment growth, which was only 22,000 in August, is expected to rise to around 50,000 in September, but this still remains below the typical pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.3%, indicating that the labor market is gradually weakening without a clear deterioration.

Average hourly wages are also expected to see limited increases. Monthly growth is forecasted at 0.3%, with an annual increase of 4.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous month. This suggests that wage growth is maintaining a moderate trajectory despite inflation easing, without significant acceleration.

Significance of the Cancellation of the October Employment Report

Notably, the October non-farm employment report has been completely canceled. This is because, due to the government shutdown, essential household survey data could not be collected during the period ending October 2025. This is more than a simple schedule change; it indicates a gap in the economic data collection system, which warrants caution when interpreting the U.S. non-farm employment index moving forward.

This incident vividly demonstrates how government shutdowns impact the transparency of economic data and market decision-making. Investors now face the challenge of assessing labor market trends with incomplete information.