#WhenisBestTimetoEntertheMarket 1. The Realized Cap Reality Check

You’re spot on about the Realized Cap Netflow. While market cap (paper value) is prone to drama, Realized Cap measures the actual USD value stored in the network. For it to flip "deeply negative" is the ultimate sign that "tourist" capital has left and even some long-term cost bases are being challenged.
The 2022 ghost: Back then, we had $0 in spot ETFs. Today, the ~$8B+ outflow since the October highs is massive, but it’s happening through regulated rails. This is "orderly" selling, even if the price action feels chaotic.
2. The "Deleveraging, Not Collapse" Argument
The $2.5B+ wipeout you mentioned in recent peak sessions is the byproduct of the 2025 Euphoria. Last year’s run to $126K built a massive tower of leverage.
The Fed Factor: With the current hawkish tone and a strong Dollar, the "Risk-Off" correlation is brutal. Bitcoin is currently trading like "high-beta Nasdaq," and until that correlation breaks, the $60K–$65K support remains the primary battleground.4. What the "Smart Money" is Front-Running
As you noted, the money isn't just vanishing—it's rotating.
Stablecoin Dominance (~12.5%): This is the "Dry Powder" indicator. When dominance spikes this high, it means capital is sitting on the sidelines within the ecosystem, waiting for a signal to re-enter, rather than exiting to fiat entirely.
The $55K–$60K Test: If we don't see ETF flow stabilization by the end of the month, a test of the 200-week moving average (currently near $58K) is a high-probability technical reset.
The Bottom Line
This isn't the end of the cycle; it's the purge. Historically, the deepest "Fear" (like the current single-digit Fear & Greed readings) occurs just before the market's most asymmetric opportunities.