#Gate廣場發帖領五萬美金紅包

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fluctuation Analysis Report: The Key Battle Point Between Bulls and Bears

Summary of Key Points

Recently, Bitcoin has been oscillating within a critical range, with market sentiment hitting a freezing point, and the bulls and bears stalemated. In the short term, technical suppression, continuous outflows of institutional funds, and macroeconomic uncertainties still constrain the upward price movement, with the possibility of further declines seeking support; however, in the medium to long term, factors such as the halving-induced supply contraction, institutional contrarian accumulation, and expectations of macro policy shifts are building momentum for the next rally. The current level is a crucial battleground; once the direction is established, volatility could sharply increase.

I. Short-term Bearish Factors: Why Is BTC Still Under Pressure?

1. Technical Analysis: Key Moving Averages as Resistance

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s current price remains below critical moving averages. Sellers maintain a technical advantage, with multiple rebounds stalling near key resistance levels. The immediate support is in the dense trading zone below; if this is broken, it could trigger a new wave of technical sell-offs.

On the weekly chart, the MACD remains in a death cross, indicating that the mid-term correction is not over. On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has closed in the red for several consecutive months, setting a prolonged decline record since the last bear market, with clear bearish technical features.

2. Fund Flow: Continuous Outflows from Institutions

Recently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds have continued to see net outflows, with several mainstream institutional products experiencing varying degrees of capital withdrawal. Over the past few months, the cumulative outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs has been significant, reflecting heightened short-term risk aversion among institutional investors.

On-chain data shows that exchange wallet balances have recently increased, with some investors transferring Bitcoin into exchanges, hinting at potential selling pressure. The proportion of large holders’ holdings has also decreased, indicating some whale accounts are reducing positions or hedging risks.

3. Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear

Currently, the Fear & Greed Index remains in single digits, in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Historically, extreme fear often coincides with a bottom, but in the short term, it can also persist as inertia-driven declines.

Social media activity has plummeted, retail participation has significantly decreased, the growth rate of new addresses has slowed, and on-chain activity is at its lowest point this year. This “neglect” state reflects market weakness and may also signal an impending reversal.

4. Macro Environment: Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish stance has postponed market expectations for a rate cut within the year. The US dollar index remains high, US Treasury yields are inverting further, and risk assets are under pressure overall.

As “digital gold,” Bitcoin remains constrained by liquidity tightening in a monetary tightening environment. Most institutions believe that only clear signals of rate cuts will truly trigger Bitcoin’s next rally.

II. Long-term Bullish Factors: Darkness Before Dawn?

1. Halving Effect: Supply Contraction Underway

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s block reward has dropped to 3.125 BTC, with an annualized inflation rate of about 0.85%, lower than the annual supply growth rate of gold. Although the supply shock from halving takes time to transmit, historical data shows that a significant price rally often occurs within 12-18 months after halving.

Mining holdings continue to decline; some miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations post-halving, but this selling pressure is gradually being absorbed. Once the supply gap appears after halving, the trend of decreasing Bitcoin balances on exchanges may accelerate.

2. Contrarian Institutional Accumulation: Hidden Currents

Despite ETF outflows, on-chain data indicates that some whale addresses are quietly accumulating. The number of whale addresses holding over 1000 BTC has recently increased, showing large holders are entering during retail panic.

OTC trading volume has rebounded, suggesting institutional funds are entering through off-exchange channels. Several listed companies have recently disclosed increased Bitcoin holdings, continuing the “corporate treasury” logic from the previous bull run.

Long-term holders (LTH) now hold at a record high proportion, with “diamond hands” locking in their positions, providing a solid bottom support for the market.

3. Macro Outlook Shift: Rate Cuts Are Only a Matter of Time

Although rate cut expectations have been delayed, the market generally believes the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle within 2026. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market’s pricing for a rate cut in the second half of the year remains above 80%.

Historical data indicates that Bitcoin often begins to move ahead of clear rate cut expectations, rather than waiting for the actual cuts. Once macro liquidity shifts, Bitcoin, as a “leading indicator,” tends to react first.

4. Accelerated Regulatory Progress

Regulatory frameworks for Bitcoin are becoming clearer across major economies. Many US asset management giants have launched Bitcoin-related products, and pension funds and endowments are exploring the feasibility of allocating to Bitcoin.

At the sovereign level, following El Salvador, more small countries are beginning to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Although the scale of subsequent adopters is limited, the symbolic significance is huge—Bitcoin is transitioning from an “alternative asset” to a “mainstream asset.”

5. Network Fundamentals Improve Post-Halving

Bitcoin’s network hash rate temporarily declined after halving but has now recovered to near all-time highs, indicating miner confidence in long-term prices. Transaction fee revenue as a proportion of total revenue has increased, partially offsetting the impact of reduced block rewards.

Layer 2 solutions like the Lightning Network continue to expand, with payment scenarios gradually materializing. The narrative of Bitcoin evolving from a “store of value” to a “payment network” persists.

III. Bulls and Bears Battle: Key Levels and Directional Choice

Technical Key Levels

The first resistance is at the neckline; a successful break and stabilization above could open upward space, with the next target at higher resistance zones. The second resistance is near previous highs, serving as a watershed between bulls and bears.

The first support is near recent lows; if broken, it will test more important long-term support levels. In extreme cases, if market sentiment collapses entirely, a drop back to the previous bull market start point cannot be ruled out.

Timeframe Analysis

Short-term (1-4 weeks): Mainly oscillating and testing lows, with an unclear direction. The current range has persisted for weeks, volatility is at an extreme, and a trend reversal could happen at any time. Downside space is limited; upside requires clear catalysts.

Medium-term (1-3 months): The window for direction choice is approaching. If the price stabilizes and forms a bottom pattern in this zone, a quarterly rebound could be triggered; failure to hold key support would extend the correction.

Long-term (6-12 months): The probability of an upward move exceeds that of a decline. The halving cycle, macro shift expectations, and institutional demand support this view, with targets generally above previous highs by year-end.

IV. Overall Assessment: How to Respond Now?

Left-side positioning vs Right-side confirmation

From a left-side perspective, the current zone is in a historically undervalued range. Several indicators show Bitcoin’s valuation is near or below that of the previous bear market. For long-term investors, phased accumulation offers a favorable risk-reward profile.

From a right-side perspective, the trend has not yet reversed; waiting for confirmation of a breakout is more prudent. A confirmed break above the first resistance can serve as a buy signal; failure to hold key support suggests further caution.

Position Management Recommendations

· Long-term investors: Consider pyramid-style accumulation, buying in stages near key supports, controlling individual positions, and leaving room for additional entries.
· Swing traders: Wait for clear trend signals before acting; chasing in a volatile range carries high risk.
· Hedgers: Use options and other tools to build protective strategies against downward risks.

Sentiment Indicator Reference

Extreme fear often corresponds to a bottom, but the duration of “extreme fear” is uncertain. Pay attention to when the fear index exits the single-digit zone, social media activity rebounds, and new address growth reverses, as auxiliary signals of sentiment bottoming.

V. Risk Warnings

1. Macro Risks: Persistent high inflation may lead the Fed to maintain tightening longer, suppressing risk asset valuations.
2. Regulatory Risks: Unexpectedly strict regulations in major economies could impact institutional participation.
3. Technical Risks: Major security vulnerabilities or contentious forks could undermine consensus.
4. Competition Risks: Other blockchains or digital gold narratives may divert funds, weakening Bitcoin’s “uniqueness.”
5. Black Swan Events: Exchange collapses, whale sell-offs, geopolitical conflicts, and other unpredictable events.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently at a delicate balance point: technical weakness coexists with fundamental strength, short-term pessimism intertwined with long-term optimism, retail exit alongside institutional accumulation. The battle at the $66,000 level may determine the direction for the coming months or even longer.

For short-term traders, waiting for a clear trend is more prudent; for long-term investors, this zone may be the moment for “smart money” to quietly position. As the old saying goes: the bull market is born in despair, grows in hesitation, matures in optimism, and ends in madness. The current market sentiment may well correspond to the first phase.