#比特币下一步怎么走？ 📉 Bitcoin falls below the one-year moving average, with historical patterns suggesting: the true bottom may be in Q3 2026!

Brothers, on-chain data is sending a key signal: Bitcoin has officially broken below the 365-day moving average (365-day MA). Looking back at history, this technical breakdown often signals the confirmation of a bear market, rather than a short-term correction.

Based on historical experience, such bear cycles typically last about 12 months. If the pattern repeats, then:

· Cycle low point: possibly in Q3 2026 (the peak of market despair)
· Next bull market start: most likely around Q4 2026 (Federal Reserve policy shift + improved liquidity expectations)

This means that what we’re seeing now might just be the first half of the bear market; the real “golden opportunity” still requires patience.

Why is the “four-year cycle” more than just halving?

Many people attribute Bitcoin’s cycle simply to the halving event, but from a macro perspective, we observe another pattern: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle closely coincides with the U.S. midterm election cycle.

Historical data shows:

· 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 — in each midterm election year, Bitcoin experienced significant bear markets or bottom regions.
· 2026 is also a U.S. midterm election year, and the market often faces regulatory policy uncertainties and macro liquidity tightening pressures.

Compared to the simple halving narrative, the political and regulatory volatility brought by midterm elections better explains the timing of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks and bottoms. Halving is an internal factor, but macro liquidity is an external factor; their resonance creates the four-year bull and bear cycles.

Where is the market currently?

Technical indicators have not yet reached critical thresholds:

· The Fear & Greed Index remains above 30, not entering the extreme fear zone (below 10 is characteristic of major bottoms historically)
· On-chain loss chips ratio, long-term holder selling pressure, and other indicators have not yet hit extreme levels seen at the end of past bear markets

Therefore, it’s premature to confirm a reversal now. The real bottoming window may still be around Q3 2026 — when macro liquidity turning points align, it could be the right time to start deploying in stages.

Operational suggestions:

1. Stay patient, keep cash on hand: don’t try to guess the bottom in a bear market or rush into heavy positions on the left side. Hold your powder and wait for that moment of extreme panic when no one dares to buy.
2. Focus on the Q3-Q4 2026 time window: historical patterns may not repeat exactly, but they provide important reference points.
3. Watch macro signals: especially Federal Reserve policy shifts, clearer regulation after midterm elections, and the USD index peaking.

The bear market is a season for sowing, but seeds shouldn’t be planted before the ice and snow melt. Let’s keep an eye on that potential historic bottom in 2026, prepare well, and get ready for the next bull run!

What do you think this bear market will bottom out at? When do you believe the true bottom will occur? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚀👇