Stress Test for ETF Investors: Can the $86,000 Psychological Threshold Hold?

The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is undergoing a severe psychological test. According to the latest statistics from crypto data analysis platform CryptoQuant, the current average entry price for investors is around $86,000, while Bitcoin’s current price hovers near $67,990. This price gap not only tests investor confidence but also serves as a real reflection of market stress testing.

Analyst Moreno pointed out that the entry price often acts as a “psychological pivot” in the market. When prices are above this level, investor confidence is boosted, and capital flows are steady; but once prices remain below this level, investors face not just a choice but a gradual breakdown of their psychological defenses. The direct consequence of this volatility is that investors must make tough decisions: hold on and wait for a rebound or cut losses to avoid greater damage.

Entry Price Becomes a “Dividing Line,” Investors Face Confidence Battles

The severity of this stress test is clearly reflected in ETF capital flows. Since October 2025, the total holdings of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF have decreased by 8.4%, with cumulative capital inflows shrinking from approximately $72.6 billion to about $66.5 billion, a decline of over $6 billion. This not only indicates a cooling market but also exposes the fragility of investor confidence.

In the latter half of January this year, the trend worsened further. During seven trading days, six experienced net outflows, with only January 26 seeing a modest net inflow of $6.8 million. Behind these stark figures are countless investors “voting with their feet”—choosing to redeem rather than continue to bear risk.

Continuous Capital Outflows Signal Precursor to Redemption Wave

Every redemption reflects an investor’s psychological decision-making process. When the entry price becomes an insurmountable psychological barrier, it is no longer just a number but a signal to cut losses. Investors lose their profit buffer, turning their positions from “floating gains” into “floating losses,” and their confidence in holding begins to crumble.

The core significance of this stress test lies in not only assessing investors’ risk tolerance but also in verifying how long the market can maintain stability without strong upward momentum. When the psychological pivot is broken, a redemption wave may be imminent.