Why Now Vice President Pence—The Shift in Trump's Conservative Elite Strategy

The nomination of Vice President Pence as a running mate is not just a personnel change; it symbolizes a fundamental shift in American conservatism. Two hours after the July 2024 attempted shooting in Pennsylvania, Ohio Republican Senator J.D. Vance issued a statement on social media asserting that Biden administration rhetoric directly incited violence against Trump. Days later, Trump announced he had nominated Vance as his vice presidential candidate. This choice reflects a dramatic reorganization of power within the Republican Party over the past eight years.

The Republican Loyalty Test—Vance’s Rapid Political Transformation

For those familiar with Vance’s 2016 stance, his current position is a startling turnaround. At 39 then, he was one of the fastest-rising politicians since Obama. His rise was rooted in his rare ability to transform his life experiences into a compelling social narrative. Raised by grandparents in Ohio’s Appalachian region, with a mother battling alcoholism, serving in Iraq, and studying at Ohio State University and Yale Law School—these backgrounds fueled his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, published in 2016.

Yet, at the same time, Vance was highly critical of Trump. During the 2016 campaign, he messaged a former roommate, “Is Trump a Nixon-like fool or America’s Hitler?” This intense aversion persisted even when, in 2020, he was working as a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and when Hillbilly Elegy was adapted into a film by Ron Howard.

By 2022, when Vance ran for Ohio’s Senate seat, the political landscape had shifted dramatically. His early campaign ads emphasized opposition to liberal elites. “The media calls us racists because they want to build Trump’s wall, but that doesn’t change the facts”—such messages were incompatible with his earlier criticism of Trump.

At that time, Vance acknowledged he hadn’t supported Trump from the start but now claimed that the billionaire “exposed corruption hidden in the country.” This softening appeared less a political calculation than a reflection of a fundamental change in his worldview. Between 2019 and 2020, Vance said he rethought liberalism’s essence, feeling that liberal intellectuals, reading Carl Schmitt, believed “there is no law, only power.”

Over the subsequent four years, Vance vocally condemned allegations of sexual violence against Trump and publicly stated that if he had been vice president on January 6, he would have certified the “alternate electors” list Trump demanded and “fought from within” Congress. This clarified his position within the Republican Party but also demonstrated how fully he has aligned himself with Trump in today’s political environment.

From Working-Class Representative to Vice President—A Symbol of Populist Rise

The most significant implication of Vance’s vice presidential nomination is the generational shift within conservatism. Like other Republican senators of his generation—Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Marco Rubio of Florida—Vance has emphasized that the GOP must move away from Reagan-era free-market orthodoxy.

“The conservative movement in the Republican Party needs to reconsider the economic doctrines of the 1980s and 1990s to sustain a lasting majority”—Vance said at an event at the American Rombard Institute in 2023. This was more than rhetoric; it suggested a theoretical realignment for the party. He supported tariffs and urged Republicans to work with labor unions.

In a February interview, Vance said, “My grandmother’s political stance is a mix of left-wing social democracy and right-wing individualism, and both have their merits.” However, as Washington Post columnist pointed out, such cooperation with labor unions remains largely rhetorical at present. Mainstream labor movements still do not see Vance as a legislative partner.

Nevertheless, Vance’s selection as vice presidential candidate carries significant meaning, especially in contrast to Mike Pence in 2016. While Pence represented traditional evangelical conservatism, Vance embodies economic nationalism, cultural warfare, and populist energy. This sends a new message within the party about Trump’s future leadership direction.

The New Direction of Conservative Elites—What Vance’s Vice Presidency Signifies

Everyone knows how Pence’s term ended. On January 6, 2021, during the Capitol riot, Trump supporters called for Pence’s execution, forcing him to flee the Capitol. Since then, many Republicans who served in Trump’s administration have regretted that decision.

In contrast, Vance’s case is different. He is a relatively recent entrant, not a Trump supporter before January 6. His current loyalty to Trump thus symbolizes a generational shift within the party. His nomination suggests Trump is moving away from the old party leadership and seeking a new generation of leaders fully loyal to him.

What does Vance’s rise ultimately mean—will he become an asset or a burden for Trump’s campaign due to his radicalism and eccentricity? It remains unclear. But in an election where age is a key issue, Vance’s vice presidential candidacy offers a small but valuable advantage to Trump’s campaign. It provides a credible indication that Trumpism’s future persists beyond Trump’s era. That is the true significance of Vance’s vice presidential bid.