Nvidia's Market Prediction After Feb. 25: Why Wall Street Is Betting on Another Historic Rally

The artificial intelligence hardware market is at a crucial inflection point, and Nvidia finds itself at the epicenter of this transformation. As the world’s leading supplier of data center GPUs powering the AI revolution, the company has maintained a commanding market position—but that dominance will face its first real test when Wall Street’s prediction for Nvidia’s trajectory becomes clear on February 25. On that date, the company will unveil its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter operating results, and the guidance it provides could reshape market expectations for the entire AI infrastructure sector.

What makes this report particularly significant is the convergence of several factors. Nvidia’s GPU sales momentum has been extraordinary, but investor attention will now focus on whether the company can maintain its growth acceleration while introducing an entirely new generation of chips. The market is primed for either confirmation of explosive growth or signals of potential deceleration—and that binary outcome makes Feb. 25 one of the most closely watched catalysts in recent memory.

The Rubin Factor: How a New GPU Generation Could Reset the AI Industry

For context on why this earnings announcement matters so much, consider the trajectory of Nvidia’s product evolution. Since 2024, the AI hardware industry has revolved around Nvidia’s Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra GPU architectures, which represent quantum leaps in performance compared to anything competitors offer. The Blackwell Ultra GB300 GPU, for instance, delivers up to 50 times more performance than the Hopper-based H100 that launched in 2022—a vivid illustration of how rapidly Nvidia continues innovating.

But here’s what’s about to change the prediction game entirely: Rubin. This newly unveiled GPU architecture is so transformative that it essentially makes the Blackwell platform yesterday’s technology. Developers can train AI models with 75% fewer GPUs when using Rubin, while inference costs—the computational expense of running a trained model—can drop by up to 90%. These aren’t incremental improvements; they represent fundamental shifts in AI economics that will reshape customer purchasing decisions.

Rubin GPUs are now in full production, with shipments expected to commence in the second half of 2026. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle—the cloud giants powering modern AI infrastructure—will be among the first customers. When Nvidia’s leadership discusses production ramps and customer adoption timelines during the Feb. 25 conference call, CEO Jensen Huang will likely provide color on how quickly the market is transitioning to Rubin. This intel could become the defining factor for how investors predict Nvidia’s multi-quarter outlook.

Earnings Growth and Market Expectations: What Feb. 25 Could Reveal

From a financial standpoint, the picture heading into this report is already compelling. Across the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 (ending October 26), Nvidia generated $147.8 billion in total revenue—a remarkable 62% surge compared to the same period a year prior. The data center segment alone accounted for $131.4 billion of that haul, representing 89% of overall revenue. This concentration underscores how dominantly Nvidia controls AI infrastructure spending.

For the fourth quarter, Wall Street’s consensus prediction, compiled by Yahoo Finance, suggests Nvidia will generate approximately $65.5 billion in revenue. If that forecast holds, the company’s full fiscal-year revenue will reach $213.3 billion. On the earnings front, analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.69 in earnings per share for the full fiscal year. Historically, Nvidia has beaten these expectations with regularity, which has translated into stock rallies—a pattern that supports the market’s bullish prediction heading into this announcement.

The second key metric investors will watch is forward guidance for fiscal 2027’s first quarter. Consensus expectations call for $70.7 billion in revenue. If Huang signals an even larger number, that would validate the market’s thesis that Rubin adoption is accelerating faster than anticipated, providing additional fuel for Nvidia’s stock trajectory.

Valuation Today: Is Nvidia’s Stock Positioned for Upside?

From a valuation perspective, an interesting dynamic has emerged. Based on Nvidia’s trailing 12-month adjusted earnings of $4.05 per share, the stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 47.3. That represents a 23% discount relative to its 10-year historical average P/E of 61.5—suggesting that even after recent appreciation, Nvidia shares appear undervalued by historical standards.

The case for upside becomes even more compelling when viewed through the lens of future earnings potential. If Nvidia’s upcoming fourth-quarter report confirms Wall Street’s $4.69 per-share earnings prediction, the stock would trade at a forward P/E of 40.7. But consider this: analysts project Nvidia can expand earnings to $7.66 per share during fiscal 2027—a prediction that would place the stock at a mere 24.9 forward P/E multiple.

This arithmetic yields a striking conclusion. If Nvidia merely sustains its current 47.3 P/E ratio while earnings grow to the predicted $7.66 per share, the stock would need to appreciate approximately 90% over the next 12 months. If instead the stock were to trade in line with its 10-year average P/E of 61.5, it would require more than a 100% gain—essentially doubling—to reach that valuation level.

The Investment Prediction: Why This Moment Matters

Bringing these threads together, the Feb. 25 report represents a critical nexus point for market prediction regarding Nvidia’s future. Several conditions would need to unfold for the bearish prediction to materialize: disappointing data center GPU sales, weak forward guidance, or slowing Rubin adoption by major cloud providers. Each of these outcomes is certainly possible, but current evidence suggests otherwise.

Conversely, the bullish market prediction is supported by accelerating AI spending, Rubin’s transformative cost economics, and Nvidia’s historical tendency to exceed expectations. The company’s pricing power in data centers remains essentially uncontested, and the migration to new GPU architectures has historically driven another cycle of demand expansion.

The probability-weighted outcome, according to market consensus, tilts decisively toward the bullish prediction. If Nvidia’s quarterly results meet or exceed expectations—and if management signals continued strength in the Rubin ramp—the stock could be positioned for meaningful upside from current levels. For investors monitoring this prediction, Feb. 25 will serve as a crucial confirmation point that either validates or challenges the market’s constructive thesis.