Bitcoin 4H: Trading Inside the Value Area at POC — Regime Still🪄💫✨

BTC sits at $68,913 on the 4-hour chart, down 1.91% on the session. The IVT Terminal reads BEARISH with price pinned directly at the Point of Control — the highest-volume price level from the current swing structure.
Here's what the chart is telling us:
The AVWAP (purple line) is the story. It's been declining since mid-January, currently sitting near $77,500 and falling. Price has not reclaimed this level since breaking below it on January 25th. In IVT regime terms: sell rallies until price closes and holds above the AVWAP. That hasn't happened.
POC Distance: -0.02%. Price is essentially sitting on the institutional cost basis. This is where the most volume has traded during this swing — meaning this is the level where institutions have the most skin in the game. The question the chart is asking: will this level hold as support or break as the final distribution level?
Volume Profile (left side) reveals the structure. The heavy blue cluster sits between $89,000–$97,000 — that's where the majority of volume traded during the January distribution. Below that, there's a thin-volume zone (air pocket) between $82,000 and $89,000 that price fell through rapidly. Notice how price didn't consolidate in that range — it sliced straight through because there was no institutional interest to absorb the selling.
The current range ($65,000–$72,000) is building a new volume node. You can see the VP bars accumulating at the bottom of the chart. This is either a base-building pattern or a distribution ledge before the next leg lower. The regime will tell us which.
Two sweep markers (red x) appeared near $70,000 over the last few sessions. Price spiked above local highs, grabbed liquidity, and reversed. Classic institutional behavior — running stops to fill sell orders. Not bullish.
What would change the read? A sustained 4H close above the AVWAP (~$77,500) with expanding volume. That flips the regime from sell-rallies to buy-dips. Until then, every bounce toward the AVWAP is a potential sell zone, and the structure below $65,000 is undefined — the air pocket concept applies if POC breaks.
The SD bands (thin gray lines) show the statistical range. Price bouncing between the lower bands confirms the bearish trend is intact but not accelerating. Compression would be the next development to watch — if the range tightens here at POC, it sets up a directional resolution.
Regime first. Volume second. Price last.
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