Corn Futures Show February Weakness: Barchart Market Analysis

Early February brings softening pressure to the corn futures market, with prices declining across multiple contract months as traders reassess positioning and global supply dynamics. A combination of technical factors and international developments is reshaping sentiment around corn futures, according to recent data tracked by Barchart analytics.

Price Pressure Mounts for Corn Futures Across Contracts

The corn futures complex opened February on a weaker footing, with nearby contracts retreating 1 to 2 cents during Monday trading. Last week’s session concluded with March corn futures settling down 2¼ cents, while March contracts faced additional headwinds of 2 to 4 cents. The cash market reflected this softness, with the national average price falling 2 cents to $3.93¼ per bushel—a decline Barchart’s CmdtyView platform is actively monitoring.

Contract-specific movements tell the full story: March corn futures settled at $4.28¼, May closed at $4.35¾, and July finished at $4.42, each showing losses of 2½ to 3¾ cents. The broader decline in open interest—down 3,824 contracts on Friday—suggests traders are reducing overall exposure to the market.

Dollar Strength and External Pressures Shape Corn Futures

The weakness in corn futures didn’t develop in isolation. The dollar index climbed to $0.893, a headwind for agricultural commodity exporters and a factor typically weighing on corn futures pricing. This external market pressure combined with shifting commodity sentiment to create the early-week decline Barchart analysts have flagged.

Trader Positioning and Market Sentiment Shifts

Recent Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC reveals important nuances about who’s adjusting their stance on corn futures. Managed money speculators—primarily hedge funds and algorithmic traders—trimmed 9,274 contracts from their net short position in the week ending January 27. This reduction came largely through new long positioning, with the net short remaining at 72,050 contracts.

Commercials—producers and end-users of corn—took a different approach, with long positions declining and net short positions rising 17,381 contracts to 187,342 contracts. This divergence in trader behavior suggests mixed signals about corn futures direction as the month progresses.

Global Crop Updates Impact Barchart’s Outlook

International developments are reshaping supply concerns tracked by Barchart and major commodity analysts. Argentina’s corn crop condition has deteriorated week-over-week, with the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange rating 46% of the crop as good/excellent—down from 52% the prior week, though still ahead of last year’s 31% rating. This regional softness provides some support to corn futures pricing from a supply perspective.

Brazil’s first corn crop harvest stands at 10%, trailing the prior year’s 14% pace and suggesting potential supply delays. However, the second crop planting has accelerated to 13%, running 4 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. These mixed signals keep export potential uncertain, especially as export sales data shows corn commitments at 57.694 MMT—33% above the same period last year and representing 71% of USDA projections, ahead of the typical 67% sales pace.

What This Means for Corn Futures Traders

The combination of domestic weakness, international crop developments, and trader positioning shifts creates a nuanced environment for corn futures participants. The recent decline in contract values, coordinated weakness across the spread, and declining open interest suggest caution among speculators—a dynamic worth monitoring as Barchart’s commodity analysis teams continue tracking this market. For traders monitoring corn futures, the interplay between improving export demand and crop uncertainty abroad will likely determine whether this early-February weakness represents a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader downtrend.