Ether may be poised for another breakout — The same liquidity signal indicates an upward movement

Markets may be at a critical juncture: A macroeconomic pattern that propelled Ether over 226% higher in 2021 is reemerging. Analysts are observing that global liquidity metrics, US small-cap stocks, and Ethereum’s price structure are converging again — a setup that could lead to significant price movements in the coming months.

The macrostructure: When global liquidity signals Ethereum

Crypto analyst Sykodelic has identified a recurring three-stage pattern that historically precedes major Ether rallies:

1. Global liquidity breaks out upward
2. The Russell 2000 (US small-cap index) follows shortly after
3. Ethereum reacts with a delay, then rises sharply

This exact sequence occurred in 2020-2021 — and now appears again in the monthly charts. Global liquidity has already confirmed the breakout, with the Russell 2000 following shortly thereafter. Historically, Ether’s response typically lags by several weeks before a strong expansion begins.

In the previous cycle, the ETH rally started approximately 119 days after the Russell 2000 breakout and increased by over 226% between March and November 2021. If this timing repeats, Ether could reach a similar turning point around March 2026.

Russell 2000 as a leading indicator for Ether prices

Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, points to a surprisingly stable correlation: the Russell 2000 has historically served as a leading indicator for Ethereum’s price discovery. The index recently hit a new all-time high near $2,738 — a development that, in previous cycles, preceded aggressive upward phases for Ether.

For investors, this means: strength in the small-cap segment could act as tailwind for Ethereum in the coming weeks. The correlation is not guaranteed, but the historical pattern is clear.

On-chain data confirms: Large wallets are stocking up

The blockchain tells its own story. According to CryptoQuant data, Ethereum accumulation addresses (wallets that continuously buy without selling) show a realized average price of around $2,720. This metric has historically served as a robust structural support zone.

Notably: In previous cycles, Ether’s price did not stay below the realized price of these accumulating addresses. With the current spot price at $2,090, we are well below this zone — a possible signal of pent-up buying pressure.

Liquidity clusters vs. price levels — Where is the bottom?

The zone from $2,700 to $2,750 is not coincidental. It aligns not only with the realized price of the accumulators but also with significant external liquidity clusters. This means: if Ether tests this range again, a technical and behavioral reaction is likely.

Analysts estimate the potential downside risk at about 7% — a relatively tight window indicating structural support. At the same time, upside potential upon pattern confirmation is substantial.

Why overall market liquidity is more influential than short-term trends

While daily news and headlines drive short-term volatility, analysts argue that Ethereum’s overarching trajectory is increasingly determined by global liquidity conditions — not by individual headlines. In previous cycles, the strongest Ether rallies only began after liquidity expanded and risk appetite gradually returned — often before the broader market sentiment fundamentally shifted.

If the current macroeconomic stance persists, Ethereum could be gearing up for a delayed but powerful breakout. The setup closely resembles the pattern that fueled its last triple-digit surge — a pattern investors should watch carefully.