Bitcoin in a 21-Week Cycle: Analysis of Extended Bearish Signals

Bitcoin continues to face renewed selling pressure, with analysts increasingly focused on scenarios of structural decline. After breaking crucial technical supports, BTC is now trading at $66.62K, reinforcing the pessimistic forecasts dominating the market. Many researchers observe that the current movement is replicating characteristic patterns of past bear market cycles, especially when considering the 21-week periods that historically precede significant changes.

Breaking the 21-Week EMA: What It Means in Months of Pressure

The loss of the 21-week exponential moving average represents approximately five and a half months of technical resistance — a level that, when broken, often marks important transitions between market regimes. This 21-week period is particularly watched by professional traders because its duration in months (about 5 months) encompasses significant consolidation cycles.

Since crossing this critical line, Bitcoin has already declined about 17%, dropping from $90,000 to current levels. Rekt Capital highlighted that this same pattern of breaking the 21-week EMA occurred in April 2022, just before a prolonged downtrend period. The relevance of this time cycle for consecutive months of pressure suggests that investors should be alert to the next steps.

On-Chain Validation: Realized Price Negates Recovery

CryptoQuant data amplifies the warning signal. Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of investors holding BTC for 12 to 18 months — a metric representing the average cost at which coins last changed hands. Historically, when the price falls below this level and remains there for weeks, the market tends to shift from normal corrections to prolonged down structures.

In the current scenario, the realized price acts as upper resistance, meaning any rally will encounter selling from investors seeking to rebalance their positions. The combination of trading below realized cost, negative profitability, and slowed growth aligns perfectly with prolonged bear regimes observed in previous cycles. This validation confirmed the pessimistic forecasts circulating among analysts.

Bear Market Structure: Historical Patterns Repeat

Breaking support zones in a bullish market created new expectations of decline. Traders are already pointing to $74,400 as the next critical liquidity point, while more pessimistic scenarios mention $49,180 as a possible target if the decline continues. The speed at which sentiment shifted after support failed demonstrates how much the technical structure has weakened.

Bitcoin in a bear cycle is no longer a remote possibility — it is now the baseline scenario guiding price forecasts. The current pattern of BTC behavior faithfully follows the same sequences that characterized previous bear markets, suggesting that without a significant recovery of support levels, downside pressures may persist.

CME Gap and Possible Downside Targets

Despite the predominantly bearish structure, some traders still observe the CME futures gap near $84,000. Historically, these gaps tend to act as short-term price magnets, and BTC may attempt a technical rally in that direction in the coming weeks. However, any recovery to this level will likely be only a temporary relief unless key technical supports are sustainably recovered.

The reality is that Bitcoin has lost key supports, technical levels are cascading downward, and the on-chain structure remains weak. While a rally to $84K is possible in the short term, the broader trend remains bearish, with analysts now discussing even deeper decline levels. The history of 21-week cycles in crypto markets suggests caution is justified. Manage risk carefully during this period of structural volatility.