#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Hey guys, today we're not discussing concepts, just one question—should you buy the dip now or wait and see?

This is the most anxious moment. Bitcoin has fallen from its high, altcoins are bleeding heavily, and the panic index has dropped to its lowest since last year. Someone in the group is showing off their short positions, others are asking if they should buy the dip, and some are quietly退出 the scene. My advice is: you can buy the dip, but you need to think through three questions first.

First, are you buying the “price” or the “trend”? If you see Bitcoin 20% cheaper than last week and rush in, that’s greed, not buying the dip. The true bottom isn’t a specific point, but a range. No one can pinpoint the exact bottom; you just need to acquire positions at relatively low levels.

Second, does your position size still allow for mistakes? If you're already fully invested and trapped, and now thinking about adding more to lower your average cost, that’s not buying the dip—it’s filling the hole of a previous bad trade. The premise of buying the dip is that you still have some bullets left.

Third, and most importantly: is market sentiment already extremely hopeless? Not just a few of us feeling hopeless, but everyone. On-chain trading volume is shrinking, large wallets are inactive, newcomers are no longer asking how to buy coins—that’s the real signal.

Is it time now? Approaching, but not quite there yet. So I suggest: divide your funds into three parts. Invest the first portion now, only in spot, not in futures. If it drops 10%, invest the second portion; if it drops another 10%, invest the third. If it breaks below the previous low, stop and admit defeat. We can never earn beyond our understanding, but we can control losses within our understanding.

I’m not advising you to buy aggressively, nor to withdraw. Just a reminder: when the market is most panicked, that’s often when smart money quietly builds positions. Whether to buy the dip or wait depends on your risk tolerance.