Prediction market data continues to confirm the shutdown probability at just under half: Polymarket is showing a 48% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before Valentine's Day, down from the previous 57% peak. According to Odaily, this shift reflects changing market sentiment as traders reassess the likelihood of fiscal disruption. With approximately $87,000 wagered on this outcome, the betting activity itself helps confirm market participants' concern level about the potential shutdown scenario. As the February 14 deadline approaches, the declining trend suggests cautious optimism, though the probability remains substantially elevated for such a critical event.