Are the US stocks entering a new normal? Just a few weeks into 2026, and we've already seen five "V-shaped" reversals after sharp declines.

Just over a month into 2026, the US stock market has repeatedly played out the same scenario: sharp intraday drops, panic sentiment, but quick recoveries before the close, sometimes even returning to high levels.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Platform, Deutsche Bank's latest report points out that since January alone, the S&P 500 has experienced at least five typical cases of "rapid decline—quick rebound."

These fluctuations are often accompanied by geopolitical risks, tariff threats, tech stock panic, or AI competition narratives, but almost none have caused substantial or sustained damage to the broader market.

In Deutsche Bank's view, this is not a coincidence but may represent a new "normal" forming in the current US stock market.

Five "Fake Falls": Frequent Risk Events, but Markets Refuse to Drop Deeply
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen summarized several representative quick pullbacks since early 2026:

Mid-January geopolitical tensions escalate: After reaching a new high on January 12, the S&P 500 briefly fell over 1% amid fears of US intervention in Iran and political statements regarding Greenland. But panic quickly dissipated, the decline narrowed significantly that day, and the market rebounded over the next two days.

Late January tariff threats trigger sell-off: The US proposed tariffs on some European countries, causing the S&P 500 to plunge over 2% in a single day. However, as negotiations framework emerged, the index rebounded for two consecutive trading days, nearly fully recovering the losses.

End of January tech Capex concerns: Microsoft’s earnings showed higher-than-expected capital expenditures, sparking worries about AI investment returns, leading to a heavy sell-off in software stocks, dragging the market down over 1.5% intraday. But by the close, the index only slightly declined, and panic did not spread.

Early February gold and precious metals plunge impacts risk assets: The metals market saw a sharp correction, temporarily dragging the S&P futures down nearly 1.5%. However, after the US market opened, it quickly rebounded, ultimately turning positive and staying close to all-time highs.

The latest example: renewed competition in software and AI: Influenced by Anthropic’s new AI tools, software stocks came under pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping as much as 1.64% intraday. But similar to previous instances, there was a clear recovery by the end of the day, and the final decline was less than 1%.

Deutsche Bank emphasizes that during each decline, the market quickly generates narratives questioning whether this is the start of a major correction. But repeated evidence shows that, despite noisy sentiment, the trend remains resilient.

Why Can’t It Fall Further? It’s Not About News, But Macro Conditions
In Deutsche Bank’s view, whether the stock market enters a true sustained decline depends not on short-term shocks but on whether macro expectations undergo a "structural downward revision."

Historical experience shows that both the 2022 bear market and earlier internet bubble bursts involved systemic deterioration in growth, policy, or financial conditions. But the current environment is quite the opposite:

The US economy remains high-growth, with Q3 annualized growth at 4.4%, and Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q4 remains above 4%;
The January ISM manufacturing index rose to its highest level since 2022;
Eurozone Q4 economic growth exceeded expectations, with PMI remaining in expansion for over a year;
Germany’s fiscal stimulus policies provide additional support for Europe’s economy in 2026.
Against this backdrop, a single risk event is unlikely to trigger a systemic risk revaluation. Deutsche Bank straightforwardly states that as long as macro fundamentals do not significantly worsen, the market tends to view sharp drops as "buyable volatility" rather than trend reversals.

An Emerging Market Behavior: Data Over Narratives
Deutsche Bank’s report offers an intriguing conclusion: the current market is placing significantly more weight on "real data" than on "news narratives."

Almost all major asset classes rose in January, which itself indicates risk appetite has not been damaged. The rapid recovery after each sharp decline actually reinforces investors’ reliance on the strategy—buying dips is being continually validated as effective.

This also explains why market volatility frequency is rising, yet the amplitude of trend swings remains tightly controlled.

Deutsche Bank does not deny risks exist but reminds investors to distinguish between "noise" and "signals." Only when growth expectations, policy paths, or financial conditions undergo substantial reversals will the US stock market face a true trend decline. Until then, the repeated "sharp drop—rebound" pattern in 2026 may well be the most authentic reflection of the current phase of the US market. At least for now, it seems more like a new normal rather than calm before a storm.