#当前行情抄底还是观望？

The time to buy the dip with your eyes closed has arrived; faith is more important than gold.
Bitcoin touched 70,000, ETH at a low of 2,075. In just one day, is the crypto world about to collapse? I believe it's time to "buy the dip in batches"! The so-called "fear when others are panicking, greed when others are greedy."
📈 Bitcoin Bottom Guess:
I believe that 68,000-70,000 is the cyclical bottom of this decline (of course, this is not the bottom of this bear market). In other words, now is an excellent time to buy the dip, for two reasons:
1. Technical indicator analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the MACD DIF line (-44.81) and DEA line (-10.30) are both in the negative zone. The MACD histogram has expanded to -69.02, confirming a death cross, indicating increasing bearish momentum. The price is steadily falling along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. However, it’s important to note that the deviation from the moving averages is large, suggesting a rebound may be needed.
On the daily chart, similar to the weekly pattern, the 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA are in a bearish alignment, with the price below all major moving averages. The price is also steadily falling along the lower Bollinger Band, with relatively balanced volume, indicating no large-scale buy-in to buy the dip. However, the daily chart shows a significant deviation from the MA5.
On the weekly chart, the lower Bollinger Band is around $69,000. Considering the panic selling during the last wave of decline, it may briefly dip below the lower Bollinger Band. One important indicator is RSI, currently at 29.21, the first time since June 2022 that the weekly RSI has triggered oversold conditions, which historically often accompany a phase of rebound.
2. Spot buying volume is increasing:
More and more people in major communities are joining the "buy with eyes closed" camp. Many streamers are also advocating for phased entry into spot positions. Coincidentally, many on-chain whales are increasing their holdings, such as Arthur Hayes who bought 96,116 HYPE in the past two days. In the future, as prices fall further, more buying will occur, and the large spot buy volume will make each future dip more pressure for the bears.

📢 On the news front, pay close attention to two points:
1. US-Iran situation and nuclear talks progress
This is the most uncertain factor in geopolitics. If the nuclear talks go smoothly, safe-haven assets like gold and silver are likely to decline, while risk assets like Bitcoin may rise. If negotiations stall and the Middle East situation worsens, Bitcoin could also be affected and decline.
2. Is the gold and silver bull market over?
I place this second because it’s particularly important. The previous gold bull market created a huge "funds siphoning" effect in the crypto space, with many retail investors moving their funds from crypto to gold. The current rise in gold and silver has also attracted trillions of dollars. Once this gold bull market ends, the massive funds leaving gold and silver will seek new value pockets, and the cryptocurrency market, after a thorough correction, will likely be the first choice. At that time, the crypto space may experience a significant rebound. Stay tuned!

📊 Which coins are good options for buying the dip?
My top picks are DOGE and HYPE. The former is the most resilient mainstream coin during this decline, showing strong resilience supported by the listing of spot ETFs. The saying "quality matters during a fall" applies here. Despite Bitcoin hitting new lows, DOGE has remained stable above $0.101, demonstrating strong resilience. Once the market reverses, I believe DOGE will rebound strongly.
HYPE, as a hot recent coin, has been mentioned multiple times in the Daily Wealth News. It is expected to lead the rebound in this cycle. During the previous Bitcoin plunge, HYPE did not fall but rose. Its current upward pattern is very intact. Fundamentally, HYPE has also profited greatly from this gold and silver bull market, and it may perform even better in the future.