February 5 | ETH Price Trend Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $2,150.27 (As of: February 5, 2026, 09:57) Short-term Outlook: Slightly bearish in the short term but with a significantly increased risk of a rebound due to oversold conditions. Daily RSI (23.7) is in an extremely oversold zone, indicating a strong downtrend but also a potential for technical correction. Key Support: $2,045.59 (Daily Bollinger Band lower band) Key Resistance: $2,774.23 (20-day moving average and Bollinger Band middle band)

Technical Indicator In-Depth Analysis

Trend Strength and Oversold Conditions

ETH is currently in a strong downtrend, but technical indicators across multiple timeframes suggest an accumulation of conditions that could lead to a rebound:

RSI Analysis:

• Daily RSI: 23.7 (extremely oversold, in the lowest historical range)
• 4-hour RSI: 31.9 (approaching oversold territory)
• 1-hour RSI: 41.0 (neutral to weak)

A daily RSI below 25 is typically considered an extreme oversold condition, often accompanied by a technical rebound historically. The 4-hour RSI also nears the oversold threshold of 30, hinting that short-term selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

MACD Divergence:

• Daily MACD: -237.01, Signal Line: -153.95, Histogram: -83.06 (strongly bearish)
• 4-hour MACD: -97.36, Signal Line: -101.12, Histogram: +3.76 (first positive crossover, suggesting a potential shift in short-term momentum)
• 1-hour MACD: -32.16, Signal Line: -31.04, Histogram: -1.12 (mildly bearish)

The positive histogram on the 4-hour MACD is a noteworthy technical signal, albeit small, possibly indicating weakening downward momentum in the short term.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages Resistance

The current price of $2,150.27 is significantly below all major moving averages:

• 20-day SMA: $2,774.23 (resistance level)
• 50-day SMA: $2,953.97
• 200-day SMA: $3,633.13

Price is near the Bollinger Band lower band at $2,045.59, with the bands showing an abnormal expansion (upper band at $3,502.87, lower band at $2,045.59), reflecting a sharp increase in market volatility. Such extreme expansion often precedes a mean reversion.

ADX Trend Strength:

• Daily ADX: 42.5 (indicating a strong trend)
• 4-hour ADX: 64.6 (extremely strong trend)
• 1-hour ADX: 35.9 (moderate trend)

An ADX above 40 confirms a strong trend, but the very high 4-hour ADX also suggests the current trend may be approaching an extreme in the short term.

Derivatives Market Sentiment

Open Interest and Funding Rates

Derivatives data shows institutional and large traders remain actively involved, but sentiment is cautious:

Open Interest: $51.07 billion This high open interest indicates high market participation but also increases the risk of amplified volatility.

Funding Rate: 0.4142% (neutral) A neutral to slightly positive funding rate suggests longs are still willing to pay fees, but it does not reflect extreme bullish sentiment, indicating a relatively balanced market mood.

Liquidation Data and Long/Short Dynamics

24-hour Liquidation Volume: $180.7 million Long/Short Liquidation Ratio: 2.03 (liquidations are predominantly long positions)

A ratio above 2 indicates that long positions are being liquidated at a much higher rate than shorts, a typical feature in a downtrend. The large amount of long liquidations releases selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.

Price Action Review and Key Levels

Since January 1 at $2,967, ETH reached a cycle high of $3,336-3,386 on January 14-15, then entered a downtrend. Since February 1, the price has accelerated from $2,702 down to the current $2,150, a decline of over 20%.

Key Support Levels:

1. Immediate Support: $2,045.59 (Bollinger Band lower band)
2. Psychological Support: $2,000 (round number)
3. Strong Support Zone: $1,800-1,900 (important support area for 2025)

Resistance Levels:

1. Immediate Resistance: $2,300-2,400 (recent rebound high)
2. Major Resistance: $2,774.23 (20-day moving average)
3. Strong Resistance: $3,000 (psychological level and 50-day moving average)

Risk Assessment and Trading Strategy

Risks

1. Trend Risk: The daily downtrend remains intact with all moving averages in a bearish alignment.
2. Liquidity Risk: Rapid price declines may lead to liquidity shortages, amplifying volatility.
3. Leverage Risk: High open interest suggests leverage liquidations could trigger chain reactions.

Opportunities

1. Technical Oversold Conditions: Extreme oversold levels provide a basis for a technical rebound.
2. Sentiment Extremes: Massive long liquidations have released selling pressure.
3. Volatility Expansion: Bollinger Band extremes often precede mean reversion.

Summary

ETH is currently in a strong downtrend, with technical indicators showing extreme oversold conditions. Key support is at $2,045 (Bollinger Band lower band), and resistance is at $2,774 (20-day moving average). Despite the ongoing trend, the oversold state and long liquidation volume provide a technical foundation for a potential rebound.

Short-term Strategy: Exercise caution, wait for signs of stabilization near support levels before considering light long positions. Set strict stop-loss below $2,000. If price rebounds to $2,300-2,400 resistance zone, consider reducing exposure.

Key Trigger Points: A confirmed break below $2,045 could open further decline toward $1,800-1,900; holding above this support and breaking above $2,300 could signal the start of a short-term rebound.