Great counterattack! Gold and silver soar! Storage chip concept stocks explode across the board!

Big Counterattack!

In the overnight U.S. stock market, the three major indices all advanced, with the Dow soaring over 1%, and the S&P 500 approaching a record high. Among them, storage chip concept stocks exploded across the board, with SanDisk surging nearly 17% intraday, and Western Digital rising over 10% at one point. On the news front, Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for Q1 2026 DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) price increases, expecting a quarter-on-quarter rise of as much as 90%–95%, far exceeding previous market and its own expectations.

This morning, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea opened sharply higher, with the Nikkei 225 up over 2% and the KOSPI up over 3%. Meanwhile, precious metals markets also staged a full-scale rebound. As of 08:00 Beijing time, spot gold surged 2.7% to $4,784.89 per ounce; spot silver jumped 5.04% to $83.12 per ounce.

Chip Stocks Explode

On February 2, Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market rallied across the board, with the three major indices opening lower and then rising. By the close, the Dow gained 1.05%, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.56%, with the S&P 500 once again approaching a record closing high.

Large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. had mixed performances, with Apple soaring over 4%, Google and Amazon up more than 1%; Nvidia and Tesla fell over 2%, while Microsoft and Meta declined over 1%.

U.S. chip stocks collectively surged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.7%. The storage chip sector led the rally, with SanDisk soaring over 15%, Western Digital rising nearly 8%, Seagate Technology up over 6%, and Micron Technology up over 5%. Other major chip giants mostly gained strength, with Intel up nearly 5%, AMD and Texas Instruments up over 4%, and TSMC ADR up over 3%.

Analysts pointed out that “hot money” flowing out of precious metals and cryptocurrencies is seeking new narratives, and storage chips, supported by strong fundamentals, may attract these funds.

Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, stated that despite volatility in the spot market, contract prices for DRAM are not only holding steady but are expected to rise even more sharply.

Giuni Lee’s team at Goldman Sachs noted that the price forecasts for DRAM in key application areas in Q1 2026 have been significantly revised upward. Specifically, the overall pricing of traditional DRAM is expected to increase by 45%–50% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, with further quarter-on-quarter growth of 90%–95% in Q1 2026, far exceeding previous market and their own expectations.

In specific segments, the price increase momentum for PC DRAM and server DRAM is particularly strong. TrendForce has raised its Q1 2026 contract price forecast for PC DRAM to 105%–110% quarter-on-quarter, well above Goldman Sachs’ previous estimate of 80%–90%, indicating further upside potential in the market, while maintaining a Q2 growth forecast of 20%–25%.

Additionally, the rare earth sector surged temporarily on the stimulus of the Trump administration’s plan to establish a “billion-dollar critical mineral reserve,” but the intraday trend was mixed. By the close, U.S. Antimony rose over 7%, but U.S. Rare Earths and Critical Metals both fell after rising over 10% during the session.

Better-than-Expected Data

Meanwhile, U.S. macroeconomic data also delivered positive signals.

On February 2, Eastern Time, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data showing that the U.S. January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly jumped from 47.9 last month to 52.6, well above the expected 48.5, entering expansion territory for the first time in nearly a year. The growth rate hit its fastest since 2022, driven mainly by robust increases in new orders and output.

A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion, and the latest reading also exceeded all survey expectations of economists.

Specifically, the new orders index reached 57.1, up from 47.7, a significant increase of nearly 10 points. The production index also strengthened markedly, both showing the fastest growth in nearly four years.

The employment index registered 48.1, above the expected 46, and the previous 44.9, reaching a one-year high. This indicates that manufacturing employment is still declining, but the decline has slowed.

Analysts said that after nearly a year of contraction, the rebound in demand-driven factory activity is undoubtedly good news. If the growth can continue, it will help boost confidence that the U.S. manufacturing sector is emerging from the sluggishness of the past three years.

Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated in a release that while these data bring positive signals at the start of the year, caution is still needed.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a sluggish state over the past three years, with few months where the PMI exceeded 50.

Therefore, some comments urge caution: on one hand, January is usually a month for restocking after holidays; on the other hand, some procurement activities seem aimed at preemptively responding to potential price increases caused by ongoing tariffs.

Notably, the U.S. government’s partial shutdown will delay the release of January employment data this year, creating a key data gap in the market.

On February 2, local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that due to the federal government’s partial shutdown, the January employment report scheduled for release on February 6 will not be published on time.

The BLS also postponed the December U.S. job vacancy report originally scheduled for release this week. This is the second delay of key economic data due to the government shutdown, following a record 43-day shutdown last fall. In September last year, non-farm employment data was delayed until November 20, and the employment reports for October and November were combined and released on December 16.