Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 4, 2026

2026-02-03 23:29:14

Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Anthropic’s new tool triggers software stock sell-off, causing the US tech sector, especially software stocks, to experience the worst sell-off since April last year. Funds are flowing into small-cap stocks, value stocks, and gold. The Nasdaq drops over 1%, while the Russell small-cap index rises 0.3% against the trend. The “Big Seven” tech giants fall 1.5%, Nvidia temporarily drops 5%. After earnings, PayPal plunges about 20%, and AMD drops over 7% after hours.

US Treasury yields edge lower, with the 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 4.266%. The dollar declines 0.15%.

Cryptocurrency prices plummet during trading. Bitcoin temporarily drops over 7%, breaking below April last year’s low, Ethereum plunges about 9%, approaching $2,100. Both rebound significantly at the close but remain lower overall.

Spot gold rebounds sharply by 6.2%, approaching $5,000. Silver rises as much as 12% intraday, then pulls back but still gains over 7%. Crude oil rises over 2% intraday, with reports that the US military shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea.

During Asian hours, the Shanghai Composite rises 1%, with breakthroughs in space photovoltaics and computing hardware. Cambrian drops over 9%, Hengke Index down over 1%, internet platform stocks plunge across the board, and Shanghai Silver crashes 16%.

News Highlights

China

Central Committee of the Communist Party and State Council Opinions on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Rural Revitalization.

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: Studying the inclusion of “copper concentrate” into national reserves.

Tax rumors “suddenly attack” Hong Kong stocks! Institutional analysis: Over-interpretation, very low credibility.

Net asset value drops 31.5% in one day, Silver LOF experiences huge volatility! Guotou Ruixin responds: Why adjust valuation? Why no prior announcement?

Overseas

Federal Reserve Board Member Milan: More than 100 basis points of rate cuts needed this year, looking forward to Waller’s upcoming performance.

US House approves government funding bill, ending partial government shutdown.

Reports say Iranian gunboats approached US-flagged oil tankers, and US shot down an Iranian drone near the US aircraft carrier; crude oil surges.

US stocks erupt in AI panic! Anthropic’s new tool triggers software stock sell-off, Reuters drops over 20% intraday. Private equity giant Apollo warns: “Software is dead,” AI is reshaping the $440 billion valuation logic.

AMD’s Q4 data center revenue surges nearly 40%, hitting record highs; Q1 revenue guidance not explosive enough, drops over 7% after hours.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang denies rumors of a deal with OpenAI falling through: Everything is proceeding as planned.

Novo Nordisk expects 2026 sales to fall 13%, exceeding expectations, US stocks fall over 10% during trading.

Market Close

US and European Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.84%, at 6,917.81 points. Dow Jones down 0.34%, at 49,240.99 points. Nasdaq down 1.43%, at 23,255.185 points. Europe’s STOXX 600 index up 0.10%, at 617.93 points.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closes at 4,067.74 points, up 1.29%. Shenzhen Component at 14,127.11 points, up 2.19%. ChiNext at 3,324.89 points, up 1.86%.

Bond Market: US 10-year Treasury yield down 0.79 basis points to 4.2695%. 2-year yield down 0.41 basis points to 3.5675%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures up 6.94%, at $4,975.30 per ounce. COMEX silver futures up 11.05%, at $85.505 per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures up 1.72%, at $63.21 per barrel.

Details of News Highlights

Global Major News

China

Central Committee of the Communist Party and State Council Opinions on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Rural Revitalization. According to Xinhua News Agency, the document states that grain output will remain around 1.4 trillion jin, with efforts to implement a new round of capacity enhancement actions for grain production exceeding 100 billion jin; promote the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, expanding applications such as drones, IoT, and robots; accelerate innovation in key biotechnologies for agriculture; fully carry out the second round of land contract extensions for thirty years across provinces; push financial institutions to increase funding for agriculture and rural areas, extend and renew loans for agricultural enterprises and farmers; scientifically and orderly promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations, and implement a household registration system providing basic public services based on residence.

First mention of “normalization of targeted assistance,” expert interpretation of the 2026 Central No.1 Document. According to CCTV News, the No.1 Document for the first time introduces the concept of “normalization of targeted assistance.” Lin Wanlong, Vice President of China Agricultural University: The biggest difference is the three words, normalization. Before 2020, it was called the critical period; from 2021 to 2025, it was called the transition period; starting in 2026, it is explicitly called normalization of assistance, focusing on stability with minor adjustments. Overall, previous measures have been effective, and these measures need to be stabilized. There are also specific policies that require further optimization, hence small adjustments.

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: Studying the inclusion of “copper concentrate” into national reserves. Deputy Secretary-General Duan Shaofu said that improving the copper resource reserve system involves expanding the national strategic copper reserves and exploring the inclusion of large-trade-volume, easily liquidated copper concentrates into reserves. Analysts believe this aligns with the “High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Copper Industry,” helping control smelting capacity, enhance bargaining power along the industry chain, and ensure stable growth and transformation of the nonferrous metals industry.

Tax rumors “suddenly attack” Hong Kong stocks! Institutional analysis: Over-interpretation, very low credibility. According to Securities Times, the main reason for the market decline is still the “tax” rumors. During the decline of internet giants’ stocks, a widely circulated message claimed that “China will adjust the recognition of high-tech enterprises and related tax policies.” Analysts believe such “small articles” have circulated before, with similar reports from foreign media last year, but nothing materialized. Ongoing monitoring is necessary, and policy implementation is expected to be cautious.

Net asset value drops 31.5% in one day, Silver LOF experiences huge volatility! Guotou Ruixin responds: Why adjust valuation? Why no prior announcement? Guotou Ruixin Fund states that the price distortion caused by the plunge in international silver prices and the limit-up/lower-limit mechanism in domestic futures led to temporary valuation adjustments to reflect true value, preventing early redemptions from harming remaining investors. No prior announcement was made because international market prices were only confirmed after 3 pm, and there was concern about triggering panic redemptions. The announcement was made following industry practice once the plan was finalized.

Overseas

Gold and silver rebound, with intraday gold rising nearly 8%, silver over 10%. Is this a “dead cat bounce” or a “bull market restart”? Institutions have reduced positions due to extreme volatility and key trend line breaches, while retail investors are “bottom-fishing” with physical holdings. Whether this rebound is a short-term bounce or the start of a bull market depends on whether gold can hold key resistance levels around $5,100 and whether silver can break through $92. The recovery of retail interest will be a key signal for market stabilization. The long-term bullish logic (central bank gold buying, rate cut expectations, etc.) remains intact, but the market needs time to digest high volatility and rebuild technical structures.

Is the gold bull market still alive? Wall Street remains bullish: Don’t fear technical corrections; Chinese buyers have become a strong pillar in the gold market! Recent gold plunges are seen as “technical shakeouts,” with the bull case unshaken. Deutsche Bank remains bullish to $6,000, emphasizing that Chinese buyers are aggressively accumulating; January gold ETF holdings increased by 940,000 ounces, possibly triple last year’s buying intensity; UBS sees $4,500 as a strong support level. Barclays believes that amid fiat currency crises and policy turmoil, gold premiums will persist long-term.
Top global traders comment: When will gold and silver rebound? Traders agree that the underlying logic of gold prices remains unchanged, but short-term speculation and retail long positions at high levels cause violent swings. Goldman warns that before volatility subsides and retail longs are cleared, gold may continue to dip; however, based on assumptions of central bank gold purchases, Fed rate cuts, and reduced private sector allocations, the target price remains $5,400 by December 2026.

Bitcoin drops nearly 8% during trading, breaking below $73,000, erasing gains since Trump’s election. On Tuesday, Bitcoin broke below the intra-year low set after Trump announced tariffs on April 7, 2025. Leverage liquidations intensified selling pressure; institutions hold firm, but retail investors are retreating. Some industry insiders believe the crypto winter may be nearing its end.

Federal Reserve Board Member Milan: More than 100 basis points of rate cuts needed this year, looking forward to Waller’s upcoming performance. Milan explicitly stated that potential inflation is not an issue, and there is little evidence of strong price pressures in the economy. He pointed out that rising long-term yields are partly due to improved growth expectations, not increased inflation concerns.

US House approves government funding bill, ending partial shutdown. The US House passed a funding agreement negotiated between President Trump and Senate Democrats, potentially ending the partial government shutdown. The bill has been sent to the President for signature. The vote was 217 in favor, 214 against.

Reports say Iranian gunboats approached US-flagged oil tankers, and US shot down an Iranian drone near the Lincoln aircraft carrier; crude oil surges. According to reports, an oil tanker flying the US flag was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordered the tanker via radio to “shut down engines and prepare to be boarded.” Iranian media said some vessels were intercepted for “entering Iranian waters without permission.” Additionally, an Iranian drone flying toward the Lincoln carrier in the Arabian Sea was shot down by US F-35 fighters; no casualties reported. Iran requested to move Friday’s US-Iran talks from Turkey to Oman, changing from multilateral to bilateral talks. Following the drone news, crude oil hit a daily high, with US oil up 2.6%.

US stocks erupt in AI panic! Anthropic’s new tool triggers software stock sell-off, Reuters drops over 20% intraday. The sell-off mainly hits legal software and data services companies. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Anthropic’s new features in the legal sector intensify industry competition. Jefferies traders describe SaaS stocks experiencing a “doomsday sell-off,” with investors “selling everything regardless of price”; if Microsoft is struggling, the situation for more vulnerable companies is even worse.

Reports indicate large exposure of software stocks, US PE firms face new sell-off.
Private equity giant Apollo warns: “Software is dead,” AI is reshaping the $440 billion valuation logic.

AMD’s Q4 data center revenue surges nearly 40%, hitting record highs; Q1 revenue guidance not explosive enough, drops over 7% after hours. AMD’s Q4 revenue exceeds $10 billion, a new high, with over 30% YoY growth. EPS growth slowed but still outperformed analysts by nearly 16%. Data center revenue reached a record $5.4 billion. Sales of MI308 chips in China generated about $390 million. US export restrictions caused inventory and related costs of about $440 million in 2025; Q1 guidance median at $9.8 billion, slightly above consensus but below the optimistic over $10 billion. CEO: expects data center revenue to grow 60% annually over the next 3-5 years.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang denies rumors of a deal with OpenAI: Everything is proceeding as planned. Huang said Nvidia will participate in OpenAI’s next funding round, calling it “the largest private placement in history.” On Monday, Altman also publicly stated he doesn’t understand where these crazy rumors come from, claiming they are building “the best AI chips in the world.” Previously, market reports suggested a “hundred-billion-dollar mega deal” stalled; Nvidia’s stock closed down nearly 3% Monday, further falling over 4% on Tuesday morning.

120x Return, $100 billion unrealized gains—Google, the hidden winner of SpaceX’s IPO! Acquiring xAI paved the way for SpaceX’s $1.5 trillion valuation IPO. For Google, which holds about 7.4% of SpaceX, this initial $900 million investment could soar to $111 billion, a return of over 120 times. By early involvement in SpaceX and holding shares in Anthropic, this tech giant has quietly secured dual benefits in space infrastructure and top AI fields without directly risking operational involvement.

Novo Nordisk expects 2026 sales to fall 13%, exceeding expectations, US stocks fall over 10% during trading. Novo Nordisk’s Q4 sales declined 7.6% YoY but still beat analysts’ expectations; sales of weight-loss drug Wegovy also exceeded forecasts. The company expects a first-ever annual sales decline in 2026, with sales and operating profit down 5-13% at fixed exchange rates, versus analyst estimates of -1.4% and -3.1%. The guidance reflects expectations of international sales growth and US sales decline; global GLP-1 market will continue expanding, but actual prices will be lower.

Selected Research Reports

How does Goldman see Waller? The market’s “misjudgment” of the new Fed Chair, Waller’s “balance sheet reduction” is unlikely, rate cuts are a prerequisite for his nomination. Goldman FX strategist Mike Cahill states that judging Waller’s policy stance solely based on his previous remarks is wrong; “being willing to cut rates is a prerequisite for him to get this job.” Goldman economist Mericle notes that Waller is unlikely to push for large balance sheet shrinkage, as there is broad support within the Fed for the “ample reserves” framework. Goldman bond trader Brown warns that aggressive balance sheet reduction could be highly disruptive to risk assets.

The “Top 10 surprises” for 2026 may overturn markets: US stocks “fizz then crash”? US debt yields above 5%, tech underperforms pharma. UBS issues a warning for 2026’s top surprises: US stocks may see a rollercoaster of “rise then crash,” with an over 80% chance of a bubble. The 10-year US Treasury yield could break 5%. Overvalued tech stocks will underperform, pharma will outperform. The dollar will continue weakening, while assets in the Eurozone and India may defy the trend. “Consensus bullish” copper mining stocks may underperform.

Domestic Companies

How much will VAT increase impact operator profits? JPMorgan: China Mobile < China Telecom < China Unicom. JPMorgan believes that the VAT rate hike (from 6% to 9%) will pressure the net profits of the three major operators in 2026, with China Mobile being relatively less affected due to higher profit margins. Operators will offset negative impacts through price hikes, cost optimization, and growth in AI cloud services; after recent stock price corrections, high dividend yields remain attractive, maintaining an “overweight” rating.

Moore Threads launches AI Coding Plan, first domestically produced full-function GPU + large model! Moore Threads officially launched the AI Coding Plan, based on domestically developed GPU MTT S5000 and GLM-4.7 code model, achieving a major breakthrough in domestic chips and large models for programming. The service offers four packages, compatible with mainstream tools like Claude Code and Cursor, helping developers efficiently complete projects. This marks a new phase for domestic computing power in AI core productivity tools.

Overseas Macro

“Almost unprecedented”! US media: Clinton couple agrees to testify before US House over Epstein case. According to Global Times, the Clinton couple’s lawyers sent an email to Kome r that evening, stating their clients will “testify on a mutually agreed date” and requesting the House to halt contempt proceedings. Clinton’s testimony in the Epstein case is “almost unprecedented.” Since former President Gerald Ford testified before Congress in 1983, no former president has been investigated by Congress under similar circumstances.

Inflation prompts policy shift, Australian central bank raises rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, AUD surges over 1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to 3.85%, causing the AUD to strengthen short-term. Facing “substantial” inflation rebound in late 2025 and stronger-than-expected private demand, the committee unanimously decided to tighten policy to address capacity pressures. The housing market’s recovery, tight labor market, and loose credit have hindered inflation decline, with the central bank warning that high inflation may persist longer.

Overseas Companies

Intel CEO: Storage chip makers tell me supply won’t ease until 2028. Chen Lihwu said at Cisco Systems’ conference that he has spoken with two major memory manufacturers, who clearly stated “not before 2028.” He added that AI will “absorb大量内存.”

Anthropic’s two attacks lead to rename: Why does Clawdbot threaten AI giants? Clawdbot’s “wild” execution capability is the root of Anthropic’s threat. Unlike ChatGPT, confined to a web chat window, Clawdbot is a “monster” with hands. It runs directly on users’ operating systems, managing files, sending emails, and even autonomously seeking tools to solve problems, as in the crazy case.

Funding issues resolved, Oracle’s AI story can be re-priced? Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion to expand AI business, balancing debt and equity to optimize the balance sheet and control dilution. Barclays believes this move alleviates long-term concerns about funding sources; Oracle’s stock is “undervalued,” not reflecting its over 30% growth outlook, and is expected to re-price.

“Those who don’t want to use ours can ignore”: Palantir’s Q4 secures $4.3 billion orders, CEO calls company’s performance a “milestone” in enterprise history. The enterprise AI market is paying premium for “deterministic delivery.” Palantir CEO Alex Karp emphasized that the company’s 127% “40 Law” score and 93% US growth stem from clients viewing AI as “a matter of survival,” not just a tech experiment. The company has restructured client workflows into its “operating system,” achieving 57% operating margin without large sales team expansion, demonstrating a “product-driven” growth model with strong operational leverage.

Pfizer’s Q4 revenue hits $17.56 billion, non-COVID growth 9%, full-year 2026 revenue guidance $59.5–62.5 billion.

Merck’s 2025 full-year revenue $65 billion, up 1%, 2026 guidance $65.5–67 billion, below expectations.

Industry/Concepts

Drones | The Central No.1 Document “Opinions on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Promoting Rural Revitalization” issued, emphasizing strengthening agricultural science and technology innovation. It calls for building innovation platforms, tackling key core technologies, and transforming scientific成果. It advocates integrating AI with agriculture, expanding drone, IoT, and robot applications, and accelerating biotech innovation.

Comment: Southwest Securities notes that after years of development, China’s agricultural drone industry has become a global leader, with major industry players. Technological innovation and market demand are driving new trends, accelerating industry reshuffling, and shifting towards intelligent driving, reducing operation barriers and improving safety. As domestic penetration deepens and prices fall sharply, overseas markets are becoming new targets for Chinese agricultural drone companies.

Robots | On February 3, Zhiyuan Robotics announced it will host the world’s first large-scale robot gala “Robot Wonderful Night” on February 8 at 20:00. The highlight is “full robot dominance,” with over 200 robots performing and interacting with audiences. The event will be streamed on Mango TV, Zhiyuan AGIBOT official platforms, and “Zhi Hui Jun” online accounts, showcasing advanced robotics such as interactive, motion, operational, and multi-robot collaboration technologies.

Comment: Guoyuan Securities believes that Zhiyuan co-founder Peng Zhihui announced the mass production of Lingxi X2 and the cumulative production data of three major product lines, confirming the company’s scalable delivery capacity and laying the foundation for future mass production plans. 2025 is expected to be the year of mass application for humanoid robots, with expanding scenarios and deeper industry involvement in 2026. The firm remains optimistic about supply and demand, recommending focus on core suppliers.

Nonferrous Copper | On February 3, Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary-General of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that improving copper resource reserves involves expanding strategic reserves and exploring commercial reserves through mechanisms like fiscal subsidies for state-owned backbone enterprises. Besides refining copper, large-trade-volume, liquidatable copper concentrates could also be included in reserves.

Comment: Huayuan Securities believes that the recent surge in gold, silver, and copper prices caused by excessive long positions and short-term liquidity shocks has led to sharp corrections. Copper prices may also experience volatility. Long-term, underinvestment in copper mining, frequent supply disruptions, and a shift from balance to shortage are likely, with profits bottoming out amid “anti-involution” efforts in smelting.

Domestic Chips | According to Beijing News, Tsinghua University’s research team recently proposed the fully flexible AI chip FLEXI—designed for edge intelligence acceleration, filling a gap in flexible electronics. Made with low-temperature polycrystalline silicon CMOS process, it is lightweight, low-cost, and energy-efficient. It withstands over 40,000 bending cycles at a radius of 1mm and 180° fold without performance degradation, maintaining stability under high-frequency, extreme mechanical stress, and accelerated aging.

Comment: With technological breakthroughs and policy support, flexible chips are moving toward industrialization, expected to reshape wearable devices, neural implants, human-computer interaction, IoT, smart textiles, and bioelectronics in the next 5-10 years, becoming a key driver of new technological revolutions. The global flexible electronics market is projected to grow from $85 billion in 2025 to over $173 billion by 2030. China’s flexible chip industry could rise from 50 billion yuan to 150 billion yuan, with a CAGR over 25%.

Smart Elderly Care | The Ministry recently issued the “Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting Innovation in Civil Affairs Technology,” emphasizing the application of humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and AI in elderly care. It calls for R&D in key technologies for preventing disability and dementia, anti-aging, daily care, rehabilitation, mental comfort, social participation, safety monitoring, emergency rescue, and creating elderly-friendly environments and aging adaptations. It advocates deep integration of elderly care tech with home, community, and institutional services, forming comprehensive multi-scenario care solutions. It also encourages local development of elderly and eldercare industry clusters, focusing on intelligent eldercare robots and smart elderly products, and promoting rehabilitation assistive devices.

Comment: Data suggests that by 2030, over 400 million people in China will be aged 60+, accounting for over 30% of the population, with the silver economy reaching around 30 trillion yuan. The smart elderly care industry is transitioning from “fragmented services” to “full-scenario ecosystems,” enabling personalized and precise services from “one size fits all” to “individualized plans,” becoming a core engine for high-quality silver economy growth. With technological maturity and business model innovation, smart elderly care will shift from “technology validation” to “scaling,” effectively addressing aging challenges.

Today’s Preview of News

China, US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, India January Service and Composite PMI.

US January ADP employment change.

Eurozone January CPI.

Eurozone December PPI.

US Treasury releases quarterly refinancing announcement.

San Francisco US AI Conference 2026.

US EIA crude oil inventory change last week.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Investment is at their own risk.

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