Short-term Outlook: Since the daily RSI is approaching the oversold zone (30.08), market sentiment is in extreme fear (index 16), and the NVT indicator shows undervaluation, a volatile rebound is highly likely in the short term to alleviate previous declines.

Key Support: $76,500 (daily Bollinger lower band and recent low)
Key Resistance: $87,700 (SMA 20 and Bollinger middle band)

Long-term Trend
Reference Technical Indicator Analysis
RSI Indicator: Daily RSI is 30.08, entering oversold territory (<30). Historically, such levels often accompany technical rebounds.
4-hour RSI is 41.75, indicating short-term momentum is recovering.
1-hour RSI is 58.52, suggesting short-term buying interest.

MACD Indicator:
Daily MACD histogram is -1299.8, still indicating a bearish dominance but with weakening momentum.
4-hour MACD histogram turns positive at 382.7, hinting at a possible shift in short-term momentum.
1-hour MACD shows positive divergence, supporting a short-term rebound view.

Moving Averages Arrangement: The current price is below all major moving averages (SMA20, SMA50, EMA20), indicating a still bearish medium-term trend, but the increased deviation raises the probability of technical correction.

Market Sentiment and Valuation Assessment
Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 16, in "Extreme Fear" zone. Historically, readings below 20 often correspond to market bottom phases.

On-chain Valuation Metrics:
MVRV Ratio: 1.41, in a reasonable valuation range, indicating the market is not significantly overvalued.
NVT Ratio: 17.1, showing network value is undervalued relative to transaction volume.
Realized Price: $55,788, representing the average cost basis of long-term holders, providing distant support.

Short-term Trend Forecast Base Scenario (Probability 60%): Stabilize near the $76,500 support level, initiate a technical rebound targeting the $87,700 resistance zone. The rebound is approximately 11-12%, lasting 3-7 days.

Optimistic Scenario (Probability 25%): If the $87,700 resistance is broken, further testing of the $90,000-$92,000 range may occur, requiring volume confirmation and improved market sentiment.

Risk Scenario (Probability 15%): If the key support at $76,500 is broken, the price may decline to the $72,000-$74,000 zone for support.

Trading Recommendations
For short-term traders: Consider light long positions at current levels, with stop-loss below $76,000, targeting $87,000-$87,700.
For medium- to long-term investors: The extreme fear combined with technical oversold conditions offers a good opportunity for phased accumulation, adopting a buy-the-dip strategy.

Risk Warning:
Closely monitor the validity of the $76,500 support. If broken, adjust strategies promptly. Also, pay attention to changes in market sentiment and external macroeconomic factors.