#加密市场观察 7.6 Million USD Alert: Is Bitcoin's "Doom" or "Dawn"? An In-Depth Analysis of the Next Decade in Cryptocurrency

In early 2026, the crypto world is chilling to the bone. A "digital earthquake" sweeps across the globe, causing Bitcoin (Bitcoin) and Ethereum (Ethereum), the two giants, to collapse simultaneously. Bitcoin's price plummets like a free fall, breaking below the key psychological threshold of $76,000, hitting the lowest level since April 2025. Panic spreads like a plague, with over $1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, turning to dust. The market sentiment index drops to the extreme fear level, and a core question once again confronts all investors: Is this the prelude to the "end of cryptocurrency," or a "dawn" after a shakeout? This article will cut through the fog, deeply analyze the "perfect storm" behind this crash, and attempt to depict the possible landscape of the crypto world’s next decade after the storm.

PART 01
Multiple Causes of the Crash — A Perfect Storm

Blaming this collapse on any single factor is one-sided. In fact, it is a "perfect storm" woven from macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical conflicts, internal structural flaws in the market, and a collapse in investor sentiment. 1.1 Clouds of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics
First, the turbulent global macro environment has set the stage for a market downturn. The escalation of geopolitical tensions is one of the most direct external catalysts for this crash. According to CoinDesk, tensions between the US and Iran have sharply risen due to an explosion near Iran’s important port of Bandar Abbas, which handles about one-fifth of global maritime oil shipments. Any instability can quickly transmit to global risk asset markets. Meanwhile, the US government briefly shut down due to Congress failing to pass the full-year appropriations bill, further exacerbating risk aversion. Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Group, pointed out that this is a broad sell-off, and Bitcoin, as a high "Delta" product, experiences significantly amplified price volatility.
“This looks like a widespread sell-off. We’re facing event risks over the weekend, with a carrier battle group docked off Iran’s coast. Trump’s comments don’t help either. This isn’t unique to Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is clearly a high-risk product, so its volatility is larger and more intense.” — Russell Thompson, Hilbert Group

Additionally, a deeper macro factor is the expectation of tightening global liquidity. Miller Tabak’s Chief Market Strategist Matt Maley analyzed that the reversal of yen carry trades is a key indicator of global liquidity. When investors start unwinding these trades—borrowing low-interest yen to invest in higher-yield assets—it usually signals a reduction in global liquidity. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are highly dependent on ample liquidity, so a liquidity retreat directly causes their prices to fall. 1.2 Internal Structural Fragility
Besides external pressures, internal structural issues within the crypto market are critical causes of the "flash crash." Among them, the "phantom liquidity" problem was exposed during this crash. Chris Soriano, co-founder of BridgePort, insightfully pointed out that the market appears healthy on the surface, with tight bid-ask spreads on major exchanges, but this masks the lack of real market depth. During weekends or periods of low trading activity, the top of the order books on major platforms may have only about $50,000 in liquidity. This means that once a large-scale forced sell-off occurs (such as leveraged longs being liquidated), buy orders can evaporate instantly, causing prices to jump and crash rather than gradually decline. This is not a re-pricing of fundamentals but a "mechanical failure" of market microstructure under pressure. Data shows over 220,000 traders were forced to liquidate within 24 hours, totaling $1.006 billion. This chain of liquidations triggered by price drops creates a vicious cycle of selling pressure, further accelerating the decline. Meanwhile, the highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF experienced net outflows this week, which the market interprets as a sign of short-term institutional investor sentiment waning, further damaging market confidence. 1.3 Return of Risk Asset Attributes
For a long time, Bitcoin has been viewed by some investors as "digital gold," possessing hedging properties against macro risks. However, in this crisis, Bitcoin and Ethereum behaved more like high-risk tech stocks. They declined in tandem with precious metals (gold, silver), falling into a broad risk-off sell-off. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that although the dollar index (DXY) fell 10% over the past year, Bitcoin fell 13% in the same period, failing to show resilience as it did in previous periods of dollar weakness. This indicates that the market now perceives Bitcoin more as a risk asset sensitive to global liquidity rather than a true store of value. Without clear signals of monetary policy shifts, a weak dollar alone is insufficient to attract new capital into crypto markets.

PART 02
The Crossroads of Future Directions

After the bloody weekend, the market’s crossroads are now apparent. In the short term, the residual panic and macro uncertainties may cause continued volatility as the market searches for a solid bottom. However, looking further into the next several years, the structural foundations supporting the long-term value of crypto assets remain intact and even show greater resilience under this stress test.

2.1 Short-term Market Forecast: Finding Bottom in Fear
In the near term, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and volatility may persist. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is fiercely battling at the critical support level of $75,000. This level previously attracted buy-in in April 2025, and with the current price testing this level, its success or failure will be crucial for the short-term trend. If this support fails, the next more significant long-term support is the 200-week moving average, currently around $58,000. Until market confidence fully recovers, prices are likely to oscillate between these key levels.

2.2 Long-term Outlook: The Structural Foundation of a Bull Market Remains Steady
Despite short-term turbulence, the core logic supporting the long-term value of cryptocurrencies has not changed. Whether it’s Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” or Ethereum’s role as the “world’s computer,” both are undergoing continuous development and deepening. Looking ahead, several key trends will shape the long-term landscape of the crypto market.

Institutionalization and Compliance Deepening: The launch of spot ETFs, although causing a “sell the news” reaction in the short term, opens a compliant and convenient gateway for traditional capital to enter crypto markets—an impact that is profound and lasting. As regulatory frameworks (such as the proposed U.S. “CLARITY Act”) become clearer, more mainstream financial institutions will participate. Standard Chartered predicts that clearer regulation will remove obstacles for the next phase of decentralized finance (DeFi), greatly boosting platforms like Ethereum.

Ethereum Ecosystem Expansion and Technological Upgrades: Ethereum’s value core lies in its robust application ecosystem. It remains the undisputed leader in stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and DeFi. More importantly, Ethereum is advancing its layer-1 scaling plans, aiming to increase network capacity roughly tenfold. Historical data shows that higher transaction throughput often correlates with greater network value and market cap. Bitcoin Suisse’s “2026 Outlook” predicts Ethereum will hit a new all-time high near $8,000 in 2026, supported by its strong structural, fundamental, and institutional backing.

Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Store of Value Consensus: Bitcoin’s core value proposition—the absolute scarcity of 21 million coins—is its foundation as “digital gold.” In an environment of high inflation and monetary overissuance, Bitcoin’s anti-inflation properties will attract more long-term value investors, including corporations and sovereign states, gradually incorporating it into their balance sheets as a store of value.

PART 03
Core Arguments for Long-term Optimism

In summary, we have ample reason to believe that the current plunge is not the end of the crypto world but rather a brutal adult rite—a final stress test of market resilience and asset value. Long-term confidence in Bitcoin and Ethereum stems from their irreplaceable core positioning in the digital age and the ever-expanding, infinitely possible new realm of value.

3.1 Bitcoin: Digital Gold and the Ultimate Macro Hedge
Bitcoin’s investment logic is simple yet powerful: in an era of unlimited quantitative easing, it offers a verifiable, absolutely scarce store of value. As global digitalization accelerates, Bitcoin’s status as a native digital store of value will strengthen. Its decentralized nature, free from control by any single entity, makes it an ideal hedge against geopolitical risks and systemic risks in traditional finance. Every major price correction provides long-term investors an opportunity to accumulate this scarce asset at a lower cost.

3.2 Ethereum: The Underlying Protocol and Value Capture Engine of the Next-Generation Internet
If Bitcoin is “digital gold,” then Ethereum is “digital oil”—the infrastructure powering the next-generation internet (Web3). From DeFi, NFTs, to GameFi and RWA tokenization, nearly all innovative blockchain applications are built on Ethereum. By introducing fee-burning mechanisms (EIP-1559) and shifting to proof-of-stake (PoS), Ethereum not only enhances network sustainability but also endows its native token ETH with strong deflationary potential and value capture ability. Holding ETH is akin to investing in the growth potential of the entire Web3 ecosystem. Standard Chartered even boldly predicts that, thanks to its leadership in smart contracts and DeFi, Ethereum will eventually surpass Bitcoin in performance and reach an astonishing $40,000 by the end of 2030!

PART 04
Conclusion

The storm at the beginning of 2026 has cruelly served as a mandatory lesson on risk for market participants. It ruthlessly exposes the fragility of the crypto market under macro pressures and the internal structural risks hidden during its rapid growth. However, history repeatedly proves that great assets are rebuilt from the ruins. When panic subsides, truly valuable “digital gold” and “digital oil” will shine even brighter. For long-term investors, extreme market fear often signals a window of strategic opportunity. Maintaining greed when others are fearful, understanding and believing in the core narratives of Bitcoin and Ethereum, requires not only cognition but also the courage and patience to endure cycles. Because in this ongoing wave of digital revolution, the greatest risk may not be volatility but absence.