Benchmark Report Analysis: Why is the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin considered "long-term and controllable"?

According to Gate market data, as of January 30, 2026, the price of Bitcoin is reported at $82,095.5, down 6.63% in the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $1.24B. Amid this wave of global risk aversion, a report from Wall Street research firm Benchmark provides a rational framework for the market to counteract fears of quantum computing.

The potential threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrencies has become a hot topic in the industry, but Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer explicitly states in the latest report that this risk is “long-term and manageable.”

The Nature and Scale of Quantum Threats

The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is based on a simple cryptographic principle: Bitcoin uses elliptic curve digital signature algorithms to secure transactions. On traditional computers, reversing a public key to find the private key takes billions of years, but in the face of sufficiently powerful quantum computers, this process could be shortened to hours.

The Benchmark report emphasizes a key distinction: only Bitcoin addresses whose public keys have been exposed face risk, not all Bitcoin.

When Bitcoin addresses are reused for transactions, the public key becomes publicly available on the blockchain. This includes early “Satoshi-era” wallets and reused addresses. Researchers estimate that there may be between 1 million and 2 million Bitcoins in such vulnerable addresses. Benchmark considers this number to be conservative. Some other estimates suggest nearly 7 million coins, accounting for about 32% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Intense Debate Over Timeline

There is significant disagreement within the industry about when quantum threats might become a reality. This disagreement directly impacts market perceptions of risk urgency.

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya predicted in November 2025 that quantum threats could emerge within the next 2 to 5 years. His judgment is based on Google’s Willow quantum chip and IBM’s quantum roadmap, which claim to achieve “quantum advantage” before 2030.

Long-term Bitcoin contributor Adam Back holds a completely opposite view, believing this risk is more likely to materialize in 20 to 40 years. Back’s conservative estimate is based on observations of the actual progress of quantum computers, noting that current technology still faces huge obstacles before being able to crack Bitcoin’s encryption with “fault-tolerant quantum computers.” Building a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin would require about 10 million physical qubits, while the most advanced quantum computers currently have only 1,121 qubits.

Industry’s Proactive Response and Market Reaction

In the face of potential quantum threats, the crypto industry has not remained passive but has already initiated a series of defensive measures.

Last week, Ethereum Foundation established a dedicated post-quantum security team and announced a $1 million research grant. Coinbase recently formed a quantum advisory committee to assess risks and mitigation strategies across blockchains. On the regulatory front, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the US released its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, providing ready-made technical solutions for upgrades to blockchains like Bitcoin.

Benchmark emphasizes that the Bitcoin network is not rigid. It has already responded to substantial risks through upgrades like Taproot, and the transition to quantum-resistant algorithms is expected to follow a similar gradual path rather than sudden protocol changes. Market reactions to quantum risks have been mixed. Earlier this month, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing “survival” risks posed by quantum computing to its long-term store of value theory.

However, many analysts believe this is an overreaction. Grayscale’s December 2025 report states that quantum risks are “unlikely to impact asset valuation in 2026,” with the earliest feasible threat not before 2030.

Bitcoin Market Performance and Quantum Risk Correlation Analysis

In the current market environment, discussions of quantum risk coincide with Bitcoin price fluctuations. According to Gate market data, as of January 30, 2026, Bitcoin’s price is $82,095.5, down 6.63% in the past 24 hours. Historical price data shows Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080 in 2025, with a low of $81,000 so far in 2026. Analysts’ price forecasts for 2026 vary, with an average estimate of around $87,941, and a forecast range between $51,885.19 and $126,635.04.

Has the discussion of quantum risk already affected Bitcoin’s valuation? Based on current market data, the impact appears minimal. Bitcoin’s market cap remains at $1.76 trillion, with a market share of 56.29%. This indicates that despite the long-term theoretical risks of quantum computing, investor confidence in Bitcoin remains solid.

More importantly, even if quantum attacks become a reality, the primary affected addresses are those with exposed public keys, not the entire network. Bitcoin holders can effectively eliminate quantum risk by transferring assets to new addresses with a simple operation.

Future Outlook

The core value of the Benchmark report lies in providing a balanced perspective: acknowledging the theoretical risks posed by quantum computing while emphasizing their long-term and manageable nature. In fact, traditional financial systems also rely on the same cryptographic technologies. If Bitcoin could be compromised by quantum computers, banks, government communications, and military networks would face similar risks. This “systemic vulnerability” has prompted institutions worldwide to actively invest in post-quantum cryptography research.

In the long term, Bitcoin price forecasts suggest that by 2031, the price could reach $222,368.27, representing a potential return of +76.00% compared to current levels.

Discussions of quantum risks should not overshadow other fundamental factors affecting Bitcoin. Market adoption, regulatory environment, macroeconomic factors, and technological developments are more likely to influence Bitcoin’s price in the short term.

Recent technological breakthroughs in quantum computing show that building a quantum computer capable of threatening the Bitcoin network requires at least 10 million physical qubits, while the most advanced systems currently reach only the thousands. After the Benchmark report was released, Bitcoin trading volume on the Gate platform remained relatively stable, with prices fluctuating between $81,000 and $88,505.7, and market sentiment marked as “neutral.” This indicates that rational risk analysis is helping the market distinguish between theoretical threats and real risks, avoiding unnecessary panic trading.