Bitcoin price trend shifts to independence, and the influence of options on the market has significantly weakened

RugPullAlarm · 2026-01-29T02:15:39+00:00

Recently, the influence of Bitcoin options positions has rapidly declined, with the notional open interest dropping from $52 billion to $28 billion. Deleveraging has accelerated, and the pace of market capital inflows has slowed. Traders' confidence in future holdings has decreased, hedging strategies are gradually being unwound, and market sentiment has shifted to caution. Spot prices are increasingly relying on fundamental factors.

RugPullAlarm

2026-01-29 02:15:39

Abstract generation in progress

A significant change has recently emerged in the market: the influence of options positions that once dominated Bitcoin price movements is rapidly waning. According to the latest analysis from Matrixport, active options trading has been the core engine driving market trends over the past two years, but this pattern has now shifted.

Options Exposure Halved, Market Leverage Reduction Accelerates

Data shows this transformation most clearly. The nominal Bitcoin options exposure has fallen from a peak of approximately $52 billion to $28 billion, nearly halving in size. This contraction is no coincidence — Ethereum options peaked in August 2025, while Bitcoin options reached their high in October 2025, after which both entered a sustained decline.

A large-scale deleveraging process has followed, with options-related positions continuously shrinking, and the “manipulative power” of options on spot price volatility significantly decreasing. This reflects a core fact: the pace of capital inflow into the market is slowing, and new allocations are becoming more cautious and selective.

Changes in Trading Structures Reveal Market Sentiment Shift, Hedging Positions Unwinding

More noteworthy is the change in trading structures. Ethereum futures positions often employ a “long plus protective put hedge” strategy, which was once a standard defensive setup in the market. Recently, such hedging combinations have been gradually dissolving, indicating traders’ confidence in their holdings for the future is adjusting.

In contrast, although many traders still buy call options to express bullish expectations, the enthusiasm for this optimism is noticeably less than before. The advancement of deleveraging and the unwinding of hedges together sketch a picture of market sentiment shifting from aggressive to cautious.

This increased independence of Bitcoin’s price movement from options influence is a direct reflection of the declining impact of options. When derivatives like options no longer dominate market direction, the trajectory of spot prices will depend more on fundamental factors and the actual allocation choices of long-term funds.

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