Quick Overview of Key Conclusions: The decision to keep interest rates unchanged + Powell's "Hawkish Pause" (emphasizing inflation risks, cooling and rate cut expectations), market is likely to surge first then retreat, volatility will increase; if a "Dovish Pause" (signaling future rate cuts), it will be positive for risk assets and push crypto prices higher. Below are specific impacts and response points:

1. Core Logic of the Rate Decision Impact

- Liquidity Transmission: Rate cuts → USD weakens, funding costs decrease → benefits high-risk assets (cryptocurrencies); Rate hikes/Hawkish pause → funds flow back into USD, risk appetite cools → suppressing crypto prices.
- Expectation Gap is Key: Market has priced in no change in rates (CME FedWatch shows 97% probability), focus on Powell's speech guiding future rate cut pace.
- USD and Risk Appetite: Hawkish statements → USD strengthens → Bitcoin and other USD-denominated assets face valuation pressure; Dovish → USD weakens → risk assets become more attractive.

2. Impact of Different Scenarios on the Crypto Market

- Hawkish Pause (higher probability): Powell emphasizes inflation risks, downplays rate cut expectations, or hints at prolonged high interest rates. Impact: Crypto prices initially spike due to "no change," then quickly fall back, leveraged positions may trigger liquidations, forming a "reverse V" pattern.
- Dovish Pause (medium probability): Signals that future rate cuts are still possible, or mentions economic slowdown risks requiring easing. Impact: Risk appetite increases, mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, driving altcoins in tandem, capital flows into crypto.
- Unexpected Rate Cut (low probability): Rate cut beyond market expectations. Impact: Short-term surge, liquidity inflows, possibly breaking out of consolidation; but beware of "Hawkish rate cut" (no subsequent easing guidance) leading to a quick retreat after the spike.

3. Historical Review and Volatility Characteristics

- December 2025 case: 25 basis point rate cut as expected, but Powell did not signal continuous easing; Bitcoin surged to $94,476 then fell back to $91,384, increasing liquidation events across the network.
- Pattern: 15-60 minutes after the decision often see "whipsaw" trading, then gradually stabilize over 3-6 hours; high leverage markets are prone to chain liquidations, amplifying volatility.

4. Trading and Operational Recommendations

1. Prioritize Risk Control: Reduce leverage before the decision, set stop-loss and take-profit levels, avoid heavy positions; monitor key support levels (e.g., $85,000–$86,000) and resistance levels (e.g., $92,000).
2. Timing: Wait 1-2 hours after the decision to observe market sentiment before acting, to avoid emotional volatility.
3. Capital Flows: Track spot ETF fund flows and exchange net buy-in volumes to assess genuine buying strength.
4. Related Assets: Watch NASDAQ, gold, USD index trends, as crypto markets often correlate with them.

5. Long-term Impact

- If high interest rates persist longer, the crypto market may continue to oscillate, with cautious institutional allocations and weak spot demand.
- If a rate cut cycle begins, easing liquidity will push prices upward, benefiting mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as DeFi and NFT sectors.

For Zhao Gongzi to provide a set of key observation indicators tonight through tomorrow morning (such as Powell's speech keywords, USD index/US Treasury yield thresholds, key BTC/ETH price levels and corresponding strategies), you can contact Zhao Gongzi for detailed insights.