Trump warns late at night: Will the US face a "shutdown" in 6 days? The crypto world may experience a huge震?

A brief warning from Trump at 3 a.m. is like dropping a bomb on a calm lake, and the countdown has begun.

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"Six days from now, the US government may shut down again." This late-night warning from Trump quickly spread online. The date points to January 30th—the day the US federal government runs out of funds.

The two parties are deadlocked on immigration issues, with the Democrats explicitly opposing the bill passed by the House in the Senate.

According to the rules, appropriations bills require 60 Senate votes to pass, but the Republicans clearly lack enough votes. The probability of a government shutdown is rapidly increasing.

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01 History Repeats

History often echoes similar themes. From late 2018 to early 2019, the US experienced the longest government shutdown in history, lasting 35 days.

During that period, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver surged strongly, with gold prices climbing from around $1,280 per ounce.

Bitcoin also started a rally from a low of about $3,800 during the same period, eventually initiating a new bull market cycle.

Although shutdowns are not simply causal to economic performance, market sentiment and capital flow patterns are clearly visible: when uncertainty clouds mainstream financial markets, some sharp capital always seeks new outlets.

02 Crypto Market Becomes a New Variable

Today’s market environment is vastly different. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have grown in size and recognition.

It is no longer a marginal speculative asset but has been incorporated by some institutions into the "digital gold" asset allocation category. If traditional financial markets experience turbulence due to government shutdowns and worsening economic expectations, Bitcoin may show more complex movements.

On one hand, as a risk asset, it may be pressured in tandem with US stocks and other markets; on the other hand, its "safe-haven narrative" and properties as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation could attract specific capital inflows.

This dual nature may intensify short-term volatility. Especially with the recent popularity of high-risk sectors like MEME coins, which are more sensitive to market liquidity and sentiment changes, volatility could be particularly fierce.

03 Direct Economic Impact

A shutdown is not only about political deadlock but also brings direct economic costs. During a government shutdown, about 800,000 federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave or work without pay.

Many public services will come to a halt. According to estimates from multiple agencies, each week of shutdown can drag down quarterly US GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

In the context of the US economy already showing signs of fatigue and high interest rates continuing to exert pressure, this additional "artificial shock" could be the last straw to dampen confidence.

If recession expectations are reinforced due to the shutdown, the Federal Reserve’s policy path will become more complex. Expectations of rate cuts may come earlier or increase in magnitude, and any change in liquidity expectations is a key factor influencing the nerves of the cryptocurrency market.

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As of press time, negotiations on Capitol Hill are still ongoing. To avoid a shutdown, both parties may reach a temporary funding agreement at the last minute. However, uncertainty itself is the enemy of the market.

Judging by the intensity of the two-party struggle, even if this can be avoided, deep-rooted conflicts over fiscal spending have set the stage for continued market turbulence this year.

When the traditional political machinery malfunctions, every investor from Wall Street to the crypto world is re-evaluating their holdings. This re-evaluation itself is quietly changing the flow of capital. #黄金白银再创新高 $BTC