First, look at the short-term pattern. On the four-hour chart, ETH is stuck within a narrow range of $2920-$2950. It has tested the middle Bollinger Band at $2940 multiple times but has pulled back each time. The rebound volume is insufficient. After spiking to $2951 yesterday, it quickly retreated, indicating weak buying pressure. Overall, the structure remains a weak oscillation, still linked to Bitcoin's passive rhythm.

Key levels to remember: the support zone below $2840-$2870 is the core support and the lifeline for the bulls. Holding this zone is crucial for stable oscillation; breaking below may lead to a test of $2750-$2780. On the upside, watch the intraday resistance at $2940-$2950. The $2980-$3000 range is the critical dividing line between strength and weakness. Only with increased volume and a firm stance can the downtrend be alleviated, opening the chance to retest the $3000 psychological barrier. Otherwise, rebounds are just technical repairs.

Looking at moving averages and sentiment, on the daily level, ETH remains in a downward channel, with the moving average system biased bearish and no signs of turning upward. The market fear and greed index is at 29, in the fear zone. Ethereum ETF funds are cautious, stablecoin market cap is shrinking, liquidity is tight, and Layer 2 activity has declined. The lack of incremental capital support is the core reason for weak rebounds.