Currently, the global financial markets—US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar, gold, and Bitcoin—are all at absolute highs. However, saying there is absolute risk isn't necessarily accurate because this is a world of relative performance.

US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar, gold, and Bitcoin are all at high levels simultaneously, which is very rare, but it has occurred because they are pricing in different narratives.
US stocks are pricing in the AI narrative;
US bonds are pricing in rate cuts;
Gold is pricing in US dollar depreciation;
Bitcoin is pricing in a paradigm shift.
All these valuations have fundamental support, but the problem is they are all ahead of their time, and a return to the mean is likely.
Currently, the S&P 500 PE ratio is at the 98th percentile in history, indicating an absolute high. A conservative approach is necessary, but it’s likely that prices will neither rise significantly nor fall sharply.
Prices won't surge dramatically because the stock market is waiting for the AI narrative; before the AI narrative, the logic was capital expenditure—everyone is buying, stacking computing power, but currently, the mass-market and daily-use hardware and software are not yet visible.
A sharp decline is also unlikely because US stocks are the biggest political asset; a major crash would be unacceptable to Trump.
US stocks are supported by several factors: first, capital flow—it's becoming difficult for China to attract US capital, but China is starting to flow back; attracting other countries is easier. The US is maintaining the dollar by competing for scarce resources. The US's control is somewhat diminished but not gone. Second, fundamentals—US profitability remains strong. Third, they can continue buybacks. So, maintaining control and even pushing prices higher is possible. Don’t think that the US-China game is in favor of China; the US hasn't gained much, and currently, the US is in chaos, which is not good for it.
By 2026, the most likely scenario for US stocks is high-level consolidation; the second most likely is a sharp drop followed by a quick rebound, a one-time harvest of overseas capital. The least likely is continued growth of over 10%.
Believe in national destiny, invest regularly in US stocks.
When this phrase becomes widely known, US stocks will definitely be high.
In 2025, A-shares will outperform US stocks; by 2026, it’s expected to remain the same. Now, instead of rushing to buy US stocks, it’s better to buy Hang Seng low-volatility dividend stocks. #现货黄金再创新高