Galaxy's 2026 crypto forecast: Bitcoin hits new highs, potentially reaching $250,000 within two years

This in-depth analysis from Galaxy Research compiles the latest trend forecasts in the crypto market. After experiencing market rotations and price corrections in 2025, industry players have gained new insights into the outlook for 2026.

Gains and Losses in 2025: Review and Reflection

At the beginning of last year, when Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 in October, the market was filled with optimism. However, subsequent regulatory adjustments, shifts in institutional narratives, and large-scale liquidations caused market turbulence. By the end of the year, BTC retreated to around $90,000. Although the current price is $90.32K, it has yet to break through previous highs.

Areas where forecasts succeeded:

✅ DeFi enters the “Dividend Era” — various applications returning over $1.04 billion to users through buybacks and income sharing

✅ On-chain governance revival — Futarchy mechanisms widely adopted in DAO management, with active voters increasing by over 20%

✅ At least 10 stablecoins supported by traditional financial institutions launched

✅ More than half of Bitcoin mining companies announced transitions to AI/HPC infrastructure (18 out of 20 major publicly listed mining firms)

Key misses in forecasts:

❌ Bitcoin failed to break through $150,000 and did not approach $185,000 in Q4

❌ The US spot Bitcoin ETP size reached only $141 billion, short of the $250 billion target

❌ Solana network transaction volume growth was below expectations

❌ Total stablecoin supply increased to $31 billion, still short of the $40 billion goal

These reviews teach us that even authoritative institutions find it difficult to accurately predict short-term market fluctuations, but long-term trend judgments are more reliable.

26 Major Predictions for 2026

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Forecast 1: By the end of 2027, Bitcoin will reach $250,000

Current market status: BTC hovers around $90.32K, with still-volatile swings. Options market data shows that by June 2026, the probability of BTC reaching $70,000 or $130,000 is roughly equal. This wide price range reflects short-term market uncertainty.

Key support levels: Once BTC stabilizes in the $100,000–$105,000 range, short-term downside risks will truly ease. Macro factors such as AI capital expenditure pace, monetary policy adjustments, and geopolitical changes could influence progress.

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s long-term volatility structure is evolving — implied volatility shows put options priced higher than call options (a phenomenon not present six months ago). This indicates the market is shifting from the skew typical of emerging assets toward characteristics of traditional macro assets, marking the maturation process of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Networks

Forecast 2: The total size of Solana’s internet capital market will reach $2 billion

Solana’s on-chain economy is shifting from meme culture activities to platforms with real business models. This upgrade benefits from improved market structure and increased demand for tokens with fundamental value. When investors prefer supporting sustainable on-chain businesses over short-term speculation cycles, the internet capital market will become the foundation of Solana’s economic activity.

Forecast 3: At least one general-purpose Layer 1 blockchain will integrate revenue-generating applications

Hyperliquid’s embedded income model within its perpetual contract trading platform successfully demonstrates this pattern, changing expectations for neutral base chains. More L1 teams are exploring: should they directly integrate certain revenue-generating infrastructure at the protocol layer?

MegaEth plans to launch a native stablecoin with validator yield sharing, and AI-oriented Ambient L1 is planning to internalize reasoning fees. This indicates blockchain is moving toward clearer economic design.

Forecast 4: Solana’s inflation reduction proposals will not be approved in 2026

Despite intense community discussions on SOL’s inflation rate, the status quo will remain in 2026. The new proposal SIMD-0411, introduced in November 2025, has yet to reach consensus. Some argue that inflation issues distract from more important priorities like reforming Solana’s microstructure.

Forecast 5: Enterprise-grade Layer 1 chains will achieve real economic settlement

At least one Fortune 500 company, cloud service provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded enterprise L1 and settle over $1 billion in real economic activity in 2026. This will connect with public DeFi via production bridges. Unlike previous enterprise chains mainly used for internal experiments, the new generation will resemble dedicated base chains for specific verticals — verified by regulated issuers and banks, while utilizing public chains for liquidity and price discovery.

Forecast 6: The ratio of application layer revenue to network layer revenue will double

As transactions, DeFi, wallets, and new consumer applications continue to dominate on-chain fee generation, value capture is shifting from infrastructure to application layers. Meanwhile, the network is structurally reducing MEV extraction and L1/L2 fees, shrinking the infrastructure revenue base. This will accelerate the advantage of the “thick application theory” over the “thick protocol theory.”

Stablecoins and Asset Tokenization

Forecast 7: The US SEC will provide some form of exemption for tokenized securities in DeFi

Possibly in the form of a “no-action letter” or a new “innovation exemption.” This will allow legitimate, unwrapped on-chain securities to enter DeFi markets, not just for back-end settlement like DTCC recently. Early rulemaking is expected to start in the second half of 2026.

Forecast 8: The SEC will face lawsuits from traditional financial institutions

Challenging the exemption plan, arguing that regulators have not established sufficient rules to manage the expansion of tokenized securities.

Forecast 9: Stablecoin trading volume will surpass ACH system

Stablecoins’ circulation velocity far exceeds that of traditional payment systems. Currently, their trading volume has surpassed major credit card networks like Visa and processed about 50% of ACH system transactions. With the definition of the GENIUS Act approved in early 2026, stablecoin growth may exceed historical averages, as existing participants continue expansion and new entrants compete for market share.

Forecast 10: Stablecoins collaborating with traditional finance will accelerate integration

Several major US financial institutions plan to launch stablecoins — including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, and others exploring G7 currency-based stablecoins; PayPal and Paxos jointly launching PYUSD ($3.70B market cap). The key to success is distribution scale, i.e., connecting banks, payment processors, and enterprise platforms.

Forecast 11: A major bank or broker will accept tokenized stocks as collateral

So far, tokenized stocks are mainly limited to DeFi experiments and private blockchain pilots. But traditional financial infrastructure providers are accelerating their shift to blockchain systems. By 2026, we may see leading banks or brokers start accepting on-chain tokenized stocks as assets fully equivalent to traditional securities.

Forecast 12: Card networks will connect with public blockchains

At least one of the three major global card payment networks will settle over 10% of cross-border transactions via stablecoins on public blockchains by 2026. While most end-users may not directly interface with crypto, net settlement between card issuers and acquirers will be done via tokenized dollars, reducing settlement times, pre-funding needs, and bank counterparty risks.

DeFi Ecosystem

Forecast 13: DEXs will account for over 25% of spot trading volume

While CEXs still dominate, several structural factors are driving more trading onto blockchains. The main advantages of DEXs — no KYC and more cost-effective fee structures — are increasingly attractive to users and market makers seeking frictionless and composable trading. Current DEX spot trading volume share is about 15%-17%.

Forecast 14: DAO treasury assets managed via Futarchy will exceed $500 million

Based on last year’s forecast of broader Futarchy (prediction markets as governance mechanisms) adoption, we now believe it has demonstrated sufficient effectiveness in practical applications. Various DAOs are starting to use it as the primary system for capital allocation and strategic decision-making. Currently, about $4.7 billion in DAO assets are fully managed by Futarchy.

Forecast 15: Total crypto-backed loans will exceed $90 billion

Building on 2025 growth, the scale of crypto-backed loans in DeFi and CeFi will continue to expand. On-chain lending share will keep rising, with institutional participants increasingly relying on DeFi protocols for credit activities.

Forecast 16: Stablecoin lending interest rates will remain moderately volatile

As institutional capital enters, bringing deeper liquidity and more stable, slowly moving funds, interest rate volatility will decline significantly. Meanwhile, arbitrage between on-chain and off-chain rates will become easier, raising DeFi’s entry barrier. In 2026, off-chain rates are expected to continue declining, maintaining low-cost on-chain borrowing — even in bull markets, off-chain rates will serve as an important lower bound.

Forecast 17: Market cap of privacy coins will surpass $100 billion

In Q4 2025, privacy coins gained significant market attention. Zcash quarterly gains of about 800%, Railgun up 204%, Monero up about 53%. As on-chain asset sizes grow, users (especially institutions) are beginning to consider whether they truly want their crypto balances fully public. Whether fully anonymous designs or mixer solutions prevail, privacy coins’ total market cap is expected to exceed $100 billion by the end of 2026, from around $63 billion on CoinMarketCap (ZEC current $357.71).

Forecast 18: Weekly trading volume of Polymarket will stabilize above $1.5 billion

Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing categories in crypto, with Polymarket’s weekly trading volume approaching $1 billion. With new capital efficiency layers boosting liquidity and AI-driven order flow increasing trading frequency, this figure is expected to stabilize above $1.5 billion in 2026.

Traditional Finance Integration

Forecast 19: Over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and 50 other crypto ETFs will be listed in the US

As SEC general listing standards are approved, the pace of spot altcoin ETF launches will accelerate in 2026. In 2025, more than 15 spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, HBAR, DOGE, LTC, and Chainlink have already been launched (SOL current $127.83, XRP current $1.92, HBAR current $0.11, DOGE current $0.12, LTC current $68.73). Other major assets are expected to apply too. Besides single-asset products, multi-asset and credit crypto ETFs are also anticipated.

Forecast 20: Net inflows into US crypto spot ETFs will exceed $50 billion

In 2025, these ETFs attracted $23 billion in net inflows. As institutional adoption expands, this number will accelerate in 2026. Restrictions on financial advisors’ recommendations are being lifted, major conservative platforms (like Vanguard) are entering crypto funds, and new altcoin products are being launched to meet demand, attracting larger capital flows.

Forecast 21: A major asset management platform will include Bitcoin in standard investment models

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and others have already removed restrictions on recommending Bitcoin to advisors. The next step is to include it in recommended lists and official research coverage, greatly increasing client visibility. The ultimate goal is to allocate 1%-2% of strategic weights in model portfolios.

Forecast 22: Over 15 crypto companies will go public or upgrade their listings in the US

By 2025, 10 crypto companies (including Galaxy) have successfully listed. Since 2018, over 290 crypto blockchain firms have raised over $50 million. With reduced regulatory barriers, many are ready to enter US capital markets. It is expected that CoinShares, BitGo, Chainalysis, and FalconX will go public or upgrade in 2026.

Forecast 23: Over 5 digital asset management firms (DAMs) will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down

In Q2 2025, a wave of DAM creation occurred, but after October, their market cap and net assets began to shrink. Many DAMs are trading below 1x valuation. Early on, many firms rapidly pivoted to DAMs to leverage market conditions. The next phase will distinguish resilient players from those lacking strategy and expertise. Success requires stable capital structures, innovative liquidity management and revenue generation methods, and strong synergy with related protocols. Scale or regional advantages can provide additional competitiveness, but many early DAMs lack strategic readiness, making it difficult to sustain market value, potentially leading to forced sales, acquisitions, or closures.

Policy and Regulation

Forecast 24: Some Democratic lawmakers will focus on “de-banking” issues and gradually accept crypto

Although unlikely, it’s worth noting: in late November 2025, FinCEN issued a warning about suspicious activity in cross-border transfers, especially related to illegal immigrant remittances. The warning also pointed to illegal work income remittances — possibly involving immigrant groups whose work violates federal law but garners leftist sympathy. This could lead some pro-immigrant Democratic lawmakers to become more sympathetic to “de-banking” issues and more open to permissionless financial networks. Conversely, Republicans supporting traditional finance and rule of law might shift to anti-crypto positions for the same reasons, despite Trump’s administration and Republican innovators supporting the industry.

Forecast 25: The US will conduct federal investigations into insider trading or manipulation in prediction markets

As on-chain prediction market trading volume and open positions increase, multiple scandals have emerged, including suspected insider trading and federal investigations into professional sports. Because traders can participate anonymously without KYC, insiders can more easily exploit privileged information or manipulate markets. Investigations based on abnormal on-chain price movements are likely.

Forecast 26: AI-enabled blockchain payments will become a reality

Payments based on x402 standards will account for 30% of daily transactions on the Base network and 5% of Solana’s non-voting transactions, marking widespread adoption of AI agent interactions on blockchains. As AI agents become smarter, stablecoins more prevalent, and developer tools more mature, standards like x402 will drive on-chain activity growth. As AI agents increasingly transact autonomously across services, standardized payment primitives will become a key part of execution layers. Due to their leading positions, Base (thanks to Coinbase’s key role in creating and promoting x402) and Solana (with its large developer and user community) are expected to be the leading chains — with new payment chains like Tempo and Arc also growing rapidly alongside agent-based business models.

Conclusion

2026 will be a pivotal year for the maturation of the crypto market. Regardless of whether Bitcoin ends the year at $70,000 or $150,000, the long-term bull case will only strengthen. With expanding institutional access, easing monetary policies, and rising demand for non-USD safe-haven assets, Bitcoin is poised to emulate gold as a widely accepted inflation hedge within the next two years. From stablecoin reforms to enterprise blockchain deployment, from DeFi yield sharing to AI-driven on-chain economies, 2026 will see the crypto ecosystem undergo a profound shift from experimentation to application.