January 20, 2026 ETH Technical Trading Strategy (Linlin Loves Trading)

1. Core Market Premise

As of 17:00 on January 20, ETH is quoted at $3,185, down 1.03% over 24 hours, with intraday fluctuations between $3,174 and $3,364, and a trading volume of $12.68 billion; the four-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle consolidation (upper boundary at 3270, lower boundary at 3170), the daily chart is below the 20/50-day moving averages, RSI at 48.3 indicating neutrality, MACD negative histogram expanding, short-term oscillations are weak.

2. Key Support and Resistance

- Support: 3170-3180 (high trading density + triangle lower boundary, 80/100); 3100-3120 (21-day moving average + cost concentration); 3080 (previous low)
- Resistance: 3270-3300 (20-day moving average + triangle upper boundary, 75/100); 3360-3380 (intraday high); 3430 (previous platform)

3. Multi-cycle Trading Strategies

1. Short-term Strategy (1-3 days, swing)

| Direction | Entry Conditions | Entry Points | Stop Loss | Take Profit | Position Size |
|------------|---------------------|----------------|------------|--------------|--------------|
| Long | Volume stabilizes above 3170-3180 (price > 3200 + RSI > 50) | 3170-3190 | below 3130 | 3270-3300 | 5%-8% |
| Short | Resistance at 3270-3300 + declining volume + expanding MACD negative histogram | 3270-3290 | above 3320 | 3170-3100 | 5%-8% |

2. Medium to Long-term Strategy (1-4 weeks, trend)

- Wait and see: wait for clear direction—break above 3300 with volume or stabilize and rebound above 3170
- Gradual position building: during pullbacks to 3100-3120, build in 3 batches, total position ≤30%
- First batch: 3110-3120, 10%
- Second batch: 3100-3110, 10%
- Third batch: 3080, 10%
- Stop loss: below 3050; target: 3430

4. Risk Control and Key Tips

- Stop-loss discipline: short-term ≤3%, medium/long-term ≤5%; leverage ≤2x, avoid heavy positions
- Prioritize volume: breakouts or stabilization without volume are false signals; do not chase
- Event risk: before the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, reduce positions or stay on the sidelines to prevent hawkish shocks
- On-chain: staking volume hits new highs providing long-term support, but high leverage longs face liquidation risk; whales reducing holdings increase short-term selling pressure