The 2026 Financial Market Grand Strategy: Bitcoin and Gold Are Poised to Surge, Thai Stock Market Investors Need to Reassess Strategies

Global Liquidity Rebalancing and the Rise of Crypto Assets and Precious Metals

By 2026, the global financial markets are experiencing an invisible power shift. While the US GDP growth remains steady at 2.0%-2.3%, market participants face a paradox: the economy appears healthy, but underlying risks continue to accumulate.

Bitcoin’s current price hovers around $96,800, and on-chain data shows exchange reserves have fallen to levels not seen since 2018. What does this mean? It indicates that the market is undergoing a classic “supply shock”—liquidity is extremely tight. Institutional investors have already set medium-term targets for BTC between $150,000 and $200,000. This is not wishful thinking but a reasonable forecast based on the Post-Halving cycle and ongoing institutional capital inflows.

Meanwhile, gold is also playing the role of the “favorite” of global central banks. As central banks around the world increase gold reserves amid the De-Dollarization wave, the target price has been set at $4,800-$5,000 per ounce. This seemingly aggressive goal actually reflects current realities: currency devaluation risks are looming globally, and traditional store-of-value assets are no longer reliable.

Internal Conflicts within the Fed Intensify, Market Expectations and Reality Are About to Clash

In December 2025, after the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%, the FOMC fell into a “cold war.” Hawkish members advocate maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation, while dovish members desire further easing. Behind this dispute lies a deeper crisis: service sector inflation stubbornly remains at 2.4%-2.7%, far above the Fed’s target.

This means the Fed faces an unsolvable dilemma—strong economic growth but inflation that has not been truly defeated. The current market consensus is that there will be two rate cuts in 2026, but the Fed’s Dot Plot hints at only one. This divergence in expectations is most likely to fully explode around May, when Jerome Powell’s term is about to end, triggering intense market volatility.

The Swiss Franc (CHF), as a traditional safe-haven asset, is also regaining attractiveness as investors prepare for possible policy vacuums and market chaos.

The “Value Trap” in the Thai Stock Market and Wise Exit Strategies

Now, let’s turn our focus to Thailand. Thailand’s GDP growth forecast is only 1.6%-2.2%, far behind its regional peer Vietnam. This is not an exciting figure—it signals the end of an era.

Thai stocks are no longer growth markets but have become a “value trap.” Aging population issues are worsening, household debt burdens are heavy, and economic momentum is clearly declining. Against this backdrop, the traditional logic of chasing rising stock prices has become invalid.

What is the truly wise strategy? Shift to “cash cow” assets. Specifically, look for high-quality companies with dividend yields over 5%. The Healthcare and Data Center sectors still see continuous foreign investment, and these heavyweight stocks remain defensive. The healthcare industry benefits from aging populations (despite sounding contradictory, healthcare demand will surge), and data centers benefit from explosive growth in AI computing power.

On the other hand, avoid commercial banks and automobile manufacturing sectors. These sectors face dual challenges: disruption from fintech and new energy sources, and the burden of non-performing loans from households and enterprises.

Investment Principles for 2026: Diversification and Seeking Cash Flow

Overall, the investment logic for 2026 should be: in an environment of rising macro uncertainty, use diversified allocations to hedge risks.

Global investors should build an “Iron Triangle” portfolio: first, allocate to Bitcoin and crypto assets for high growth potential; second, increase gold exposure as the ultimate safe haven; third, carefully select high-dividend defensive stocks in domestic markets. This approach allows participation in the upward cycle of emerging assets, protects principal during economic downturns, and provides stable cash flow through dividends.

For Thai investors, instead of struggling in a low-growth domestic stock market, it’s better to seize the window of global capital rebalancing by moderately allocating to digital assets like Bitcoin (despite high volatility but with huge potential), while increasing weights in healthcare and data centers. This is not about abandoning the Thai market but participating more intelligently in the benefits of the global economic restructuring.