This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
$BTC
Bitcoin Cycle Is Changing Phases
There is a very familiar signal…
and every time it appears, the market enters a different phase.
Not news.
Not FOMO.
But the Price Oscillator.
If you look back at previous Bitcoin cycles, you'll see a very clear pattern:
👉 When the Price Oscillator drops below zero,
👉 The market doesn't bottom immediately,
👉 But begins a 3-wave sequence of the bear market.
And currently…
it has just fallen back below zero.
Most importantly:
👉 The first wave of the 3-wave decline is forming.
This isn't the first time this has happened.
Data shows similar moments in the past:
March 2014
March 2018
January 2022
What do these three points have in common?
It's not an immediate crash.
It's a cycle phase shift:
From euphoria → doubt
From “buy anywhere and win” → “capital preservation is more important”
Many people often misunderstand this.
Seeing prices still high → thinking it's still safe.
Seeing a rebound → thinking the uptrend is returning.
But with the Price Oscillator:
👉 It doesn't indicate high or low prices
👉 It signals the beginning of increased risk
And when the first wave of the bear market appears,
the market usually still experiences:
Sideways movement that’s uncomfortable
A rebound that makes people think it’s stable
Then gradually revealing the true trend
👉 This is not a signal to panic.
👉 But it’s also not a phase to gamble.
History shows:
This phase often results in losses due to rushing into trades
But it’s also the best phase to preserve capital for the next cycle
To put it simply:
The market hasn't crashed hard,
but the risk has returned.
Those who understand the cycle will slow down.
Those who don’t understand the cycle will trade more…
and often pay the tuition.
Understanding where the market phase is at times matters more than predicting where prices will go.