The contrast between Zhu Su's warnings and the fate of Three Arrows Capital

The story of Three Arrows Capital represents one of the most ironic chapters in cryptocurrency history. Years before the firm collapsed under a debt of $3.5 billion, its co-founder Zhu Su was publicly predicting and advising on how to navigate digital asset markets without falling into common traps.

During a podcast in February 2021, Zhu Su presented a bullish thesis on Bitcoin, projecting that the cryptocurrency could reach a total valuation between $50 and $100 billion, which would imply a price of approximately $2.5 million per coin. However, the most notable aspect of his intervention was not the optimistic prediction, but the emphasis he placed on prudent risk management. Zhu Su explicitly warned investors about the dangers of being margin-called during a bull supercycle, recommending avoiding attempts to synchronize market movements.

The message was clear: although returns could be significant, patience and discipline were essential to avoid being caught off guard by unexpected moves. The advice, structured around solid risk management principles, seemed to come from someone who understood the nuances of volatile markets.

However, shortly after, Three Arrows Capital collapsed, revealing that the risks Zhu Su publicly warned about had not been managed within his own operation. The subsequent detention of Zhu Su added another layer of complexity to this narrative of paradox and ignored caution. His imprisonment became a tangible reminder that lessons on risk management, no matter how well articulated, require rigorous application to be effective.