What Really Moves Bitcoin? Ran Neuner Says It's Not The Halving

The conventional wisdom surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements might be fundamentally flawed. Ran Neuner, an influential voice in the crypto commentary space, has put forth a compelling challenge to the widely accepted four-year halving narrative that has dominated market discussions for years.

Rather than the periodic halving events that capture so much attention, Ran Neuner points to a different set of forces shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory: global liquidity flows and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings. His argument rests on a critical observation—the halving cycle thesis relies on just three historical data points, a foundation he considers too fragile for making reliable market predictions.

The Real Pattern Behind Price Movements

Examining Bitcoin’s price history through this new lens reveals something striking. The correlation between Bitcoin’s rallies and downturns appears far stronger when examined against changes in monetary policy, central bank balance sheet expansions or contractions, and PMI indicators. These macroeconomic factors, Ran Neuner suggests, paint a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s market dynamics than the periodic halving schedule.

This distinction carries real consequences for market participants. The liquidity environment—shaped by decisions made by global central banks and reflected in economic sentiment indices—emerges as the primary force dictating how capital flows through Bitcoin markets.

Why This Matters For Your Portfolio

Ran Neuner’s warning to retail investors carries weight: anchoring investment decisions to the halving cycle could prove costly. Investors who time their exits based on this narrative risk capitulating at precisely the wrong moments, often selling to well-capitalized institutional players who recognize the true drivers of price action.

Understanding that liquidity, not mining events, fuels Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets fundamentally reshapes how traders should position themselves and time their market entries and exits.