## Is SOL Rebound Imminent? Can This Rally Hold at $138

**Current SOL Trend Analysis**

Solana (SOL) is currently oscillating around $141.12, with a 24-hour increase of +2.10%. Looking at recent performance, this rebound is not accidental — January is often a strong month for cryptocurrencies, especially following a bearish December in the previous year. The upward momentum this time is supported by a major catalyst: the approval of a spot ETF.

**Institutional Funds and Technical Upgrades Drive Double Momentum**

The spot ETF has been officially approved, with latest data showing $765 million in inflows, indicating that institutional investors' allocation needs are gradually being fulfilled. Meanwhile, the Solana network is advancing two major technical upgrades, Apenglow and Firedancer, which will significantly improve network performance and stability, crucial for the development of DeFi and RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) ecosystems. Additionally, the collaboration with Western Union to settle stablecoins opens a new window for practical applications within the Solana ecosystem.

**Technical Support and Resistance Levels**

In the short term, SOL needs to hold above the key level of $138. This price point corresponds to the 50-day moving average and is an important breakout level for the rebound. Once it effectively surpasses $138 with increased trading volume, testing $146-150 will be well-founded; if momentum continues, $171 becomes a medium-term target. On the downside, $124-127 is the first support zone, with $116 serving as a stronger technical support. The daily RSI has started to turn bullish (around 60), providing technical backing for further upward movement.

**Expected Timeframe Framework**

In the short term (1-4 weeks), SOL is expected to fluctuate within the $130-140 range, with a breakout above $138 potentially challenging $146-150. Looking into the first half of 2026, the $150-170 range will serve as a baseline; if ETF inflows continue and technical upgrades proceed smoothly, SOL could even break above $200. However, long-term (full 2026), this depends on the vitality of the Solana ecosystem and the evolution of the overall regulatory environment. Under a neutral outlook, targets are $180-220; in optimistic scenarios, it could reach $260+; conversely, if ecosystem momentum weakens or external conditions worsen, dropping below $100 should also be considered a risk.

**Notable Risk Factors**

It is important to note that Solana has experienced network outages, and stability remains a concern. In the competitive landscape of public chains, Ethereum Layer 2 solutions and emerging chains are continuously siphoning ecosystem resources, posing ongoing challenges to SOL’s long-term attractiveness. Macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties may also suppress overall risk appetite.

**Trading Strategy Reference**

Short-term traders can gradually build positions within the $124-127 range, setting stop-losses below $116. Once a breakout above $138 with volume occurs, consider increasing positions aiming for $146-150. Mid-term holdings in the $150-170 range should be gradually reduced to realize profits; if the $100 psychological support is broken, strict risk control must be enforced to avoid deep losses. For overall position management, it is recommended that individual holdings do not exceed 10% of total assets, and a trailing stop-loss should be set to protect gains.