Gold in 2025-2030: Where Prices Are Heading and What It Means for Investors

Gold is moving into a new cycle, and prices could change significantly over the next few years. Where do we expect growth? To $3100 in 2025, around $3900 in 2026, and by 2030, gold could reach $5000 per ounce. These are not just numbers – they are backed by specific market factors that are important to understand.

What do major financial players say about gold?

First, let’s look at the consensus among financial institutions. By 2025, experts are very optimistic:

Goldman Sachs predicts the price will reach $2700 at the start of the year. Bloomberg provides a wide range from $1709 to $2727 – uncertainty amid unstable macroeconomics. UBS and BofA expect around $2700-2750. J.P. Morgan forecasts $2775-2850, and Citi Research projects a baseline of $2875.

Most institutions agree: in 2025, gold will trade in the $2700-$2800 range. An exception is Macquarie with a more conservative estimate of $2463 at the start of the year and ANZ with a more aggressive forecast of $2805 by year-end.

One research organization goes further – they project $3100 in 2025, significantly above the consensus. This indicates they have more faith in factors pushing gold higher: inflation expectations and increased central bank purchases.

Why has gold started rising so aggressively?

This happened because gold began setting new highs not only in USD but simultaneously in all major currencies. This occurred in early 2024 – the first global confirmation that a new market cycle has truly begun.

The root cause is monetary inflation. The money supply (M2) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) show steady growth. Historically, gold always moves in the same direction as these indicators – when they rise, gold goes up. The previous divergence between M2 and gold prices was just a temporary market discrepancy, now closing.

Fundamentally, the most important driver of gold is inflation expectations. Not supply and demand, recessions, or economic cycles. It is inflation expectations that drive the price. When people fear inflation, they buy gold as insurance. Current inflation expectations remain elevated, supporting the thesis of long-term growth.

Charts indicate a breakout upwards in this decade

Looking at a 50-year gold chart, two powerful reversal patterns are visible. The first – a decline in the 80s-90s, which was so prolonged that the subsequent bull market lasted about 20 years. The second – the “cup with handle” formation between 2013 and 2023 – a classic signal for significant growth.

The simple rule: the longer the consolidation, the stronger the subsequent move. Gold consolidated for 10 years – meaning, substantial growth is expected.

On a 20-year chart, it’s clear that bull markets in gold usually start slowly and then accelerate. Also, the last rising cycle consisted of several phases with corrections. Expect the same this time – not a smooth move, but wave-like upward growth.

Currencies and bonds: auxiliary signals

Gold is closely linked to the euro and treasury bonds. When the euro is strong (USD weak), gold tends to rise. When bond prices increase (yields fall), gold also tends to go up. On the long-term EURUSD chart, there’s potential for dollar weakening, which will favor gold.

Treasury securities also set a positive tone. With expectations of interest rate cuts worldwide, bond yields are unlikely to rise – another factor supporting gold.

Futures indicate limited upside potential – for now

The gold futures market has accumulated short positions by speculators. This is a “stretch indicator” – when such positions are very high, gold’s price cannot rise as quickly or as far as it could. However, this does not mean growth is impossible – it just indicates the move will be gentle, without explosive jumps.

What is the most realistic target price?

Synthesizing all factors – charts, monetary dynamics, inflation expectations, intermarket space, and futures positioning – the most realistic scenario appears to be:

• 2024: a peak around $2600
• 2025: surpassing $3000, with a target of $3100
• 2026: expanding to $3900
• 2030: a potential peak at $5000

These figures become invalid only if gold drops below $1770 and stays there – which is highly unlikely given current momentum.

Silver: a wild card for aggressive investors

What about silver? On the 50-year chart of the gold-to-silver ratio, silver reacts later to bullish gold markets, but when it does, it can be explosive. Historically, silver accelerates during subsequent stages of the gold cycle. By 2030, silver could reach $50 per ounce – a psychologically significant figure that is quite feasible.

For a diversified portfolio, holding both metals makes sense, but be aware that silver is riskier but potentially more profitable.

How does all this connect?

Gold has entered a new era. This is not a speculative journey but the result of long-term consolidation, established market indicators, and macroeconomic realities. Monetary inflation continues, central banks are buying gold, and inflation expectations remain high.

What has changed? Gold has begun setting new highs simultaneously in all major currencies. This signals that this is not a temporary correction but a genuine trend change.

2025 will be a critical year. When gold hits $3000 this year, it will send a signal whether the upward trend will continue or a prolonged consolidation will begin. Experts share their opinions, but most agree the bullish trend will persist – only the growth pace may differ.

Investors should monitor macroeconomic indicators, follow monetary dynamics, and not rely on short-term fluctuations. The bull market in gold is developing – the only question is how explosive it will be.

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