How a private company SpaceX is storming the $1.5 trillion market — a story that began with Russian engineers' refusal

Turning Numbers: On the Edge of an IPO

December 2024 brought a news explosion in the space industry, like a Falcon rocket: SpaceX reached a valuation of $800 billion during its latest internal funding round. The company is preparing for an IPO in 2026 with an ambitious plan to raise over $30 billion. If Elon Musk achieves his goal of $1.5 trillion, it will surpass the legendary Saudi Aramco IPO of 2019 and become the largest in world history.

The figures are staggering, but behind them is a story about how a person, who has a personal wife and did not expect such heights, changed two industries — the space industry and global telecommunications.

Thousands of Millions of Dollars — But on the Edge of the Abyss

2008 was a dark night for Musk. The financial crisis engulfed the world, his company Tesla was melting away, personal relationships were falling apart. SpaceX had only enough money for one last launch. Three failed attempts, three explosions — and no one believed. Even space legends, astronauts who walked on the Moon, publicly doubted his project.

This was a turning point. If the fourth Falcon 1 launch failed, SpaceX would cease to exist, and Musk would be left with nothing. On September 28, 2008, the rocket launched at night. The fiery dragon soared into the sky, and after 9 minutes — success. The world’s first private company successfully put a rocket into orbit. Cheers erupted in the control room, Musk’s brother started crying.

A few days later, NASA called with a proposal for a $1.6 billion contract.

From First Causes: Why Rockets Must Return

When Elon Musk was still working at PayPal, he meticulously calculated the costs of building a rocket in a simple Excel sheet. The conclusion was straightforward and painful: traditional space giants artificially inflated prices by tens of times. One screw cost hundreds of dollars — why?

Musk applied this logic of first causes to the biggest challenge: if airplanes are discarded after one flight, aviation would be inaccessible. Reusable rockets are not an option, but a necessity for democratizing space.

Company experts opposed this. It seemed pathetic. But on the night of December 20 to 21, 2015, Falcon 9 launched its first stage, which successfully returned and landed vertically on the launch pad. A scene from a future film suddenly became reality. The golden age of cheap space began.

Stainless Steel Instead of Carbon Fiber: An Engineering Revolution

Musk and his team tried to build Starship from expensive composites — materials used in aircraft carriers. Progress was barely noticeable, costs astronomical. Then Musk returned to one simple question: why not stainless steel?

Engineers pointed out — it’s too heavy. Musk glanced at the melting point table. Type 304 stainless steel withstands 1400 degrees, while composites require heavy heat shields. Considering the weight of thermal protection, a stainless steel rocket weighs the same but costs 40 times less.

Result: engineers are no longer tied to clean rooms. In the Texas desert, you can set up a tent, weld the rocket like a water tower, and not regret explosions — tomorrow it will be reassembled. “Top-tier engineering from cheap materials” — that’s the DNA of SpaceX.

Starlink: When a Show Becomes Infrastructure

Before Starlink, SpaceX was a theater for the public — landings, explosions. Thousands of low-orbit satellites changed everything. As of November 2024, Starlink has 7.65 million active subscribers, but the actual number of users exceeds 24.5 million.

North America accounts for 43% of subscriptions, and this is no coincidence — anywhere from a cruise ship in the middle of the Pacific to war-torn areas, a compact receiver provides a signal. Starlink has transformed space from spectacle to utility infrastructure, as essential as water or electricity.

This is the “river-ramp” that makes SpaceX a telecom monopoly giant. Wall Street pays for Starlink, not for launch frequency. Over 80% of SpaceX’s expected revenue in 2026 (22-24 billion dollars) will be generated by satellite internet services.

A Step to Mars: Why Musk Needs Capital Replenishment

When asked why he changed his mind about an IPO, Musk gave an answer beyond commerce. His ultimate goal is to build a self-sustaining city on Mars within 20 years using 1000 Starships. This requires capital approaching the impossible.

The only motivation for accumulating wealth is to make humanity a multiplanetary species.

An IPO of $1.5 trillion is not cash for yachts or villas. It’s an “interplanetary fee” for Earthlings, transformed into fuel, steel, and oxygen. Within two years, the first Starship should make a crewless landing on Mars; in four — a human foot will step on the red soil.

SpaceX’s story is a transformation from a “loser of the private sector,” scorned by Russian space industry elites, to a company rewriting the rules. A valuation of $1.5 trillion is not speculation but a logical culmination of first principles applied to humanity’s biggest questions.