Bitcoin correction is not a bad sign: Will demand from the US push prices higher?

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $90,69K, and experts affirm that what we are witnessing is not a true crypto winter, but just a normal cooling-off period within a long-term growth cycle.

According to Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, this correction is entirely reasonable after BTC surged by +122% last year. He argues that even if 2025 ends with no gain or slight decline, Bitcoin can still maintain an average annual increase of 50% in the long run. “Assets need to be allowed to cool off occasionally, stocks too. People are overanalyzing,” Balchunas commented.

Bitcoin is not a “tulip bubble”

Balchunas has dismissed comparisons of Bitcoin to the tulip bubble—one of the most famous bubbles in history. He points out that tulips only existed for three years before completely collapsing, whereas Bitcoin has survived over six major crashes, legal pressures, exchange bankruptcies, halving events, and global shocks over 17 years of operation.

He believes that survival capability is the fundamental difference. Gold, Picasso paintings, rare stamps—all are non-yielding assets but still retain value in society. Bitcoin fits into this category, rather than relying solely on temporary enthusiasm.

Selling pressure from the US: Temporary phenomenon or warning sign?

CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium index clearly depicts selling pressure: at the end of November and early December, this index fell into negative territory. This is a historical period when US institutions rebalance their portfolios and sell to reduce taxes.

However, what’s notable is that the premium quickly returned to positive territory within a few days. According to CryptoQuant, this switch usually indicates that selling pressure has ended, allowing demand from the US market to re-emerge. The current stability or continued decline largely depends on liquidity conditions in the US, derivatives trader behavior, and new capital flows.

Derivatives cooling off, not market collapse

Carmelo Alemán, a CryptoQuant analyst, makes an important observation: prices and Open Interest (OI) are decreasing simultaneously across all exchanges. This is not a sign of spot selling but of traders closing futures contracts.

The decline in OI plays a positive role by removing excess leverage from the system and reducing false momentum from short-term derivatives. Alemán believes that the current phase reflects a reset rather than the beginning of a bear market.

Conversely, price increases accompanied by rising OI often indicate fragile gains driven by leverage without genuine investor demand.

With Bitcoin continuing to maintain its fundamental strength and technical indicators showing downward pressure, the market seems to be reorganizing itself rather than heading into a prolonged downturn.