Starlink is the key: Why is SpaceX valued at up to $1.5 trillion?

December 2025, a piece of news that has the financial market buzzing. SpaceX has just completed a private valuation at $800 billion, paving the way for an IPO in 2026 with a target raise of over $30 billion. If it reaches the projected valuation of $1.5 trillion, this will become the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion record in 2019.

This figure may seem astronomical, but behind it are not myths, but highly specific technical and commercial decisions.

From Failure to Monopoly: The 23-Year Journey

In 2002, Musk founded SpaceX in an old 75,000-square-foot warehouse on the outskirts of Los Angeles with $100 million in capital. At that time, Boeing and Lockheed Martin mocked the company — a startup daring to enter the monopolized defense industry.

Three consecutive failed launches. In 2008, when Falcon 1 exploded on its third attempt, SpaceX only had enough money for one last launch. The global financial crisis, Tesla on the brink of bankruptcy, and even Musk’s space heroes — Neil Armstrong and Eugene Cernan — publicly mocked his rocket plans.

On the night of September 28, 2008, Falcon 1 launched for the fourth time. The moment the rocket reached orbit, SpaceX was reborn from the dead. Ten days later, NASA signed a $1.6 billion contract for 12 cargo missions — a lifesaver just in time.

The “First Principles” Thinking Shift in Aerospace

But survival was just the first step. Musk was steadfast that rockets must be reusable — a decision that was almost unthinkable at the time.

In 2001, Musk used an Excel sheet to analyze costs. He discovered that traditional giants artificially inflated prices by 10-100 times. A single bolt could sell for $500, but raw aluminum and titanium materials cost only a few dollars per kilogram. If costs were artificially inflated, they could certainly be artificially reduced.

In 2015, a historic moment occurred. The first stage of Falcon 9 returned to Cape Canaveral launch pad and landed vertically, just like in science fiction movies. The old “rules” of aerospace were completely broken.

Stainless Steel Replaces Carbon: “Using Cheap Materials for Cutting-Edge Tech”

When developing Starship for Mars, SpaceX also fell into the “high-end material trap.” The industry followed the carbon fiber mindset — expensive, complex, but “industry standard.”

Musk shattered this assumption. Carbon fiber costs $135 per kg but is weak under heat. 304 stainless steel — the same type of steel used in kitchen pots — costs only $3 per kg and withstands temperatures up to 1400 degrees.

Including insulation systems, stainless steel rockets have a total weight comparable to carbon but cost 40 times less. This frees SpaceX from the need for ultra-clean manufacturing plants. They only need to set up tents in Texas, weld rockets like water tanks, blow them up without hesitation, clean up, and continue.

This is SpaceX’s true core competitive advantage — not advanced technology, but cost-first thinking based on fundamental physics principles.

Starlink: From Technology to Profitable Infrastructure

From $1.3 billion in (2012) to $400 billion in (2024), and now $800 billion (current), SpaceX’s valuation has grown remarkably. But what truly supports this massive figure isn’t rocket launches, but Starlink.

Before Starlink, SpaceX was just impressive headlines. Starlink changed everything — transforming space transportation from a concept into basic infrastructure like water and electricity.

As of November 2025:

• 7.65 million global subscribers
• 24.5 million active users
• North America: 43% of subscriptions
• Emerging markets (South Korea, Southeast Asia): 40% of new users

Projected revenue:

• 2025: $15 billion
• 2026: $22-24 billion (up 50-60%)
• Over 80% of revenue from Starlink

SpaceX has completed its transformation from a contract-dependent contractor to a global telecommunications giant with a monopoly-like moat. This is the real reason Wall Street dares to value it at such heights — not the frequency of launches, but the recurring cash flow from satellite internet.

The Largest IPO in History: Fuel for Mars

If it successfully raises $30 billion, SpaceX will surpass Saudi Aramco to become the largest IPO in history. A valuation of $1.5 trillion could place SpaceX in the top 20 largest publicly listed companies worldwide.

Employees at Boca Chica and the Hawthorne factory — those who once slept on factory floors through the “production hell” — will welcome a wave of millionaires, even billionaires. The recent private share price of $420 per share reflects that.

But Musk doesn’t see the IPO as a “cash-out” in the traditional sense. In 2022, he famously said: “Going public is a ticket to suffering.” Three years later, he changed his mindset for a simple reason — Musk needs capital for his ambitions.

His roadmap is:

• 2 years: Starship unmanned landing tests on Mars
• 4 years: Human footprints on the Red Planet
• 20 years: Building self-sustaining cities with 1,000 Starships

Musk has repeatedly stated that the sole purpose of accumulating wealth is to make humanity a multiplanetary species.

From this perspective, hundreds of billions of dollars from the IPO are not about flaunting wealth, but about “interplanetary tolls” that Musk collects from Earth. All of it will turn into fuel, steel, and oxygen, paving the way to Mars.

The largest IPO in history — ultimately — will be humanity’s story, not just an individual’s.