#密码资产动态追踪 January 12 Evening Ethereum Technical Observation

$ETH shows a clear bearish opportunity around the 3120 level. A deviation within 5 points can be considered for positioning. It is recommended to use 20x leverage with a 10% position for testing. Set stop-loss at 3150 and take-profit initially at 3060.

From the current market situation, Ethereum's movement is actually following a quite "standard" pattern—strictly along the trendline with no signs of breaking down. The last pullback directly hit our previously set stop-loss on long positions, after which we changed our approach. But strangely, the market then continued to rise along the trendline, with lows gradually increasing.

The logic behind this is quite interesting: the main players will never give free money to retail traders. Observing above the trendline, the number of retail longs far exceeds shorts. It’s very likely that the main players are gradually cultivating retail traders' bullish sentiment, providing some profit space before reversing their positions. Generally speaking, in such a pattern, if there is no sufficient short-side counterparty, it’s almost impossible for the main players to smoothly establish long positions.

Currently, the market has started to enter a sideways phase with increased positions. If retail traders are also going long simultaneously, the main players can only maintain short positions and wait for a turning point. Based on this judgment, we still lean towards a bearish outlook, predicting a break below the trendline in advance. Otherwise, once the breakdown occurs, it will be very difficult to find entry opportunities.

Tip: Do not base heavy positions on this alone; key levels are for testing only. Short-term analysis does not represent a long-term directional judgment. If you want to discuss market trends in depth, feel free to share your ideas.