Ethereum social media sentiment hits rock bottom, why do analysts say the risk is limited

Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan recently pointed out that Ethereum’s social media sentiment has fallen back to levels seen before the price surge in 2025. This observation implies an interesting market pattern: when everyone is reluctant to talk about a coin, opportunities are often not far behind. Looking at the history in 2025, this judgment is not unfounded.

History Repeats: From Despair to Takeoff

The 2025 Ethereum trend provides a clear reference framework.

Brian Quinlivan’s core point is: Ethereum was able to soar from $1,472 to $4,878 precisely when the “market started to massively bearish on Ethereum” and suddenly took off. This is not a coincidence but a typical case of inverse movement between market sentiment and price in the crypto space.

Current Market Signals of Coldness

What is the current state of Ethereum? The data makes it very clear:

• Social media discussion is near freezing point, most believe ETH “has no more stories”
• Price has fallen from $4,878 in August to around $3,110 now, a decline of about 36%
• Market attention has shifted to Meme coins, AI, and other new narratives
• Crypto content viewership on YouTube has dropped to the lowest since January 2021

More importantly, retail investors have collectively gone into hiding. According to the latest data, the current market rhythm is mainly dominated by institutions, with retail investors waiting. Under this condition, retail sentiment has already reached its limit of decline.

Why Low Sentiment Could Be a Good Signal

Downward space is preemptively exhausted by sentiment

When everyone is giving up on a coin, pessimism is actually fully reflected in the price. Santiment’s judgment is straightforward: under the current sentiment structure, the probability of Ethereum dropping significantly again is low. In other words, the market has already priced in the risk.

Where is the trigger for sentiment reversal?

This does not mean Ethereum is about to take off immediately. More accurately: downside risk is limited, but upside requires a trigger condition. According to relevant data, Bitcoin’s social sentiment is gradually warming, but for retail investors to regain a positive attitude, the key is for Bitcoin to reach the $90,000 threshold. Similarly, Ethereum’s sentiment reversal may also depend on a certain price level or event trigger.

Current market structure

• Retail sentiment: extremely bearish, lowest attention
• Institutional actions: leading the market rhythm
• Capital flow: concentrating into new narratives (Meme coins, AI, etc.)
• Market temperature: overall cold, but not without opportunities

Is this Coldness a Trap or an Opportunity?

From sentiment indicators, the current market state resembles the bottom environment of April 2025. But similarity does not mean repetition. Whether Ethereum can once again perform the story from doldrums to climax depends on several key factors:

• Can Bitcoin break through $90,000 and reignite market enthusiasm?
• Does Ethereum have new narratives or fundamental improvements?
• When will retail investors re-enter, and when will sentiment reverse?

The current price ($3,110) is neither a historical low nor a high. It’s more like a state of “being underestimated by sentiment but uncertain when it will reverse.”

Summary

The ice-cold sentiment on Ethereum’s social media indeed resembles the environment before the 2025 market rally. The value of this signal is: it tells us that downside risk has been fully priced in, but it does not mean an uptrend is imminent. Low sentiment is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.

What we should really focus on is: when will sentiment start to reverse, and what event or price breakthrough will serve as the trigger? Until then, the market may continue to oscillate within the current range, with institutions positioning and retail investors waiting. This very coldness is itself part of the market brewing the next wave of行情.