#密码资产动态追踪 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan has undergone a major adjustment, and Wall Street has really changed its tune this time!

The market previously expected the Fed to actively cut rates this year, but recently, the major investment banks have collectively shifted to a more conservative stance, pushing back the rate cut timetable across the board. Comparing their latest forecasts reveals how significant the change is:

Citi adjusted its rate cut timing from January, March, September to March, July, September, with a total cut of 75 basis points. Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, eliminating one rate cut and now only expects cuts in June and September, totaling 50 basis points. Barclays is even more open, pushing the timeline to June and December. Morgan Stanley's earlier aggressive plans for January and April are now scrapped, with focus shifting to June and September. The most striking is JPMorgan — not only canceling the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 but also suggesting that rates might actually rise in 2027.

Why has the attitude shifted so quickly? Ultimately, it’s because the resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations. Steady employment, strong consumer data, and inflation being stickier than anticipated have given the Fed enough patience to hold back. The previous question of "When will the Fed cut rates?" has now shifted to "Will the Fed cut rates?"

What does this mean for us investors? Delayed rate cuts directly imply that the high-interest-rate environment will persist longer. The attractiveness of the US dollar remains strong, increasing the likelihood of continued capital inflows into the US, which could lead to more volatility in the crypto market and emerging market assets. Whether it’s stock allocations, borrowing costs, or exchange rate expectations, it’s worth re-evaluating all of them.

Who will win this investment bank "bet" — Citi’s caution or JPMorgan’s extreme conservatism? I’d love to hear your thoughts.