BTC holds at key technical levels: analysts warn of downside risk to $76,000

The current market sentiment towards Bitcoin appears divided — amid uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, several industry analysts are focusing on a key technical support line. According to on-chain analyst Markus Thielen (head of 10x Research), since the rate cut in October, the crypto market has lost its upward momentum. He pointed out that Fed Chair Powell at the time signaled a “non-linear, data-driven” easing policy rather than a traditional clear-cut rate cut cycle, and this ambiguity has exerted ongoing pressure on market expectations.

Technical Critical Test

Analysis from Daan Crypto Trades indicates that Bitcoin is operating within a critical technical range — specifically around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone. The analyst emphasized that if this support fails, the market could face a significant rückgang, with prices potentially retesting the April lows near $76,000. He further added that this is essentially a “last important support” before retesting the April lows, and breaking it would mean the entire higher-timeframe market structure is at risk of being broken.

BTC is currently trading at 90.77K, leaving room for action around these key levels, but market fragility cannot be ignored.

Weekend Liquidity Manipulation and Volatility

On Sunday night, Bitcoin experienced a wave of leveraged liquidations — including both long and short positions being forcibly closed. The price briefly dropped below $88,000 but then quickly rebounded above $91,500. Analyst “Bull Theory” described this volatility as “a typical low-liquidity weekend manipulation,” aimed at liquidating leverage participants on both sides and artificially creating chaos.

This reflects the fragility of the current market structure — low trading volume, declining participation, making prices susceptible to short-term manipulation.

Fed Decision as a Market Turning Point

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday is a key event. The market widely expects a 0.25% rate cut. However, Henrik Andersson (Apollo Capital) believes this cut has already been priced in, and the real variable is the Fed’s forward guidance — which will directly determine market direction. He remains cautiously optimistic for next year, noting that Fed Chair Powell will be replaced in May, potentially leading to further rate cuts in 2026, providing support for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Nick Ruck (LVRG Research Director) added that aside from the Fed decision, upcoming labor market and inflation data could also trigger market reactions — if these data meet market expectations of continued easing, it could spark a new wave of liquidity inflows and broader market recovery.

The Gray Area of Market Outlook

Currently, BTC remains relatively stable within the $70,000 to $100,000 range, but this stability masks structural weaknesses: declining trading volume, ETF outflows being negative, and implied volatility further contracting. This combination typically signals that downside risks outweigh upside opportunities. Analysts generally agree that while policy factors provide some support, the lack of market participation makes any breakout in either direction vulnerable to severe liquidity tests.