Bitcoin強勢坐鎮：Altcoin Season Index跌至18揭示市場真相

The crypto market has just sent a clear signal. The highly watched Altcoin Season Index has dropped sharply by four points, now only remaining at 18. What does this number imply? Why is Bitcoin’s dominance over the market increasing? We need to carefully interpret what this shift means for your investment portfolio.

What exactly does the Altcoin Season Index measure?

First, let’s understand the core logic behind the Altcoin Season Index. Maintained by CoinMarketCap, this index does not track simple price increases or decreases. Instead, it uses a deeper comparison method: over the past 90 days, it measures the relative performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) compared to Bitcoin.

The fundamental question this index answers is: Are mainstream altcoins collectively outperforming Bitcoin, or does Bitcoin still dominate? It employs a clear trigger mechanism — when 75% of these top altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the market officially enters " altcoin season," usually accompanied by a broad and rapid rise in crypto assets. Conversely, if most altcoins underperform, it indicates a Bitcoin season. A score of 100 represents the peak of altcoin season, while a low of 18 clearly indicates Bitcoin’s absolute dominance.

What does the drop from 22 to 18 mean?

It may seem like just a four-point decline, but for this index system, it is a significant change. The decline indicates that the number of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin is decreasing. Possible driving factors behind this include:

Shift in market risk appetite — When uncertainty exists, capital tends to flow into Bitcoin, which is viewed as more stable and less risky compared to other crypto assets.

Capital flow concentration — Market liquidity may be highly concentrated in Bitcoin, leading to insufficient capital support for other altcoins to sustain independent price rises.

Macro-economic environment impacts — Larger economic factors like interest rates and inflation often have a greater impact on high-risk altcoins than on Bitcoin.

Therefore, the decline in the Altcoin Season Index is less a disaster for the altcoin market and more a demonstration of Bitcoin’s relative resilience and leadership.

Investment decision framework under low index

A low Altcoin Season Index does not necessarily lead to panic. The key is to understand that this index measures the median performance of the top 100 altcoins, not the future trajectory of each individual asset. A low index reading does not mean all altcoins will fail.

In fact, many projects with solid fundamentals or specific niches can perform well even during Bitcoin seasons. A low index reading more often serves as a reminder of the current market rhythm.

In such an environment, investors should adjust their strategies:

• Focus on quality — Prioritize altcoins with real utility, ongoing development, and active communities.
• Identify sector leaders — Pay attention to promising sectors like DeFi, Layer 2 solutions, and other front-runners.
• Use downturns to accumulate — Regularly invest in fundamentally strong projects, turning market lows into accumulation opportunities.
• Avoid blindly chasing trends — Small-cap, highly volatile speculative coins tend to carry excessive risk during this period.

The cyclical pattern of Altcoin Season

The history of crypto markets shows clear cyclical characteristics. Long-term Bitcoin seasons eventually give way to altcoin season surges. The current low index level may actually be laying the groundwork for future reversals.

Once investor confidence begins to recover, capital seeking higher returns will gradually shift from Bitcoin to altcoins, potentially pushing the index rapidly above the critical 75 threshold, signaling the official arrival of altcoin season.

Monitoring the movement of the Altcoin Season Index involves two key points: when the index stabilizes above 50, it indicates altcoins are regaining market momentum; when it breaks through 75, altcoin season is confirmed to have started.

Strategic recommendations in the current market environment

The Altcoin Season Index has fallen from 22 to 18, clearly reflecting Bitcoin’s current strong market control. While this may suppress altcoin appeal in the short term, it is just a routine phase within the crypto market cycle.

Smart investors should treat such indices as decision-making references rather than sources of fear. Its value lies in confirming mainstream market trends, enabling more rational asset allocation, risk management, and timing judgments. In the crypto world, seasons are an inevitable pattern.

Core Q&A about the Altcoin Season Index

Q: How is the Altcoin Season Index calculated?
A: It measures the percentage of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) that have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. When this exceeds 75%, it indicates “altcoin season.”

Q: Why is 18 considered a very low reading?
A: 18 means only a very small portion of mainstream altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. This directly reflects Bitcoin’s absolute dominance, with market funds not widely flowing into other crypto assets.

Q: Does a low index mean all altcoins are losing money?
A: Not necessarily. A low index indicates that altcoins are underperforming relative to Bitcoin, but many altcoins’ USD prices may still be rising; they just haven’t kept pace with Bitcoin.

Q: How can traders use this index?
A: As a risk assessment tool. When the index is low, more caution is advised for aggressive altcoin speculation, and greater emphasis on Bitcoin holdings. When the index rises, it suggests increasing market risk appetite for altcoins.

Q: How often is this index updated?
A: Usually daily, providing near real-time insights into Bitcoin and altcoin market dynamics.

Q: Has this index ever reached its maximum value?
A: Yes. During altcoin bull markets, the index has soared to 100, indicating nearly all top altcoins outperform Bitcoin simultaneously.

Final thoughts

If you’re contemplating whether the current market’s Bitcoin dominance calls for a defensive stance or the accumulation of quality altcoins, this analysis may offer data-driven guidance. Remember, every market cycle contains opportunities; the key lies in understanding the rhythm and seizing the right moment.