A radical prediction has been circulating in the community recently: by early 2026, XMR (Monero) may face significant pressure, with the price potentially reaching $100. While it sounds a bit sensational, the underlying logical chain is indeed worth analyzing.

**Why is there such concern?**

Regulatory scrutiny hangs over privacy coins. 2026 will become a key point for the implementation of global compliance policies. The EU's attitude towards privacy coins is becoming increasingly strict, and mainstream exchanges are also under pressure. If stricter restrictions are imposed, XMR's liquidity could sharply shrink — this is the real killer of price collapse.

From a technical perspective, XMR is currently hovering around $500. If it breaks below the $400 critical support, large institutional liquidations will follow, and once confidence collapses, prices from three years ago (around $100) are not impossible.

Another overlooked point: full-chain privacy technology is gradually maturing. New solutions like FHE are taking root in the Ethereum ecosystem, and the narrative of "urgent need" for native privacy coins is being eroded. When the market finds alternative solutions, pure privacy attributes may no longer be as valuable.

**How to respond?**

If you hold a position, this price level is arguably a historical high. Consider taking profits in stages, at least preserving your principal. Don’t let "big picture" thinking trap you; splitting at high levels is a reasonable risk management strategy.

Secondly, closely monitor announcements from exchanges. Once you hear any signs of movement, execute your withdrawal plan immediately — don’t gamble on that last spike.

Finally, if the price really drops to $100, it could be an extremely attractive low point for true believers in privacy technology. As long as XMR can stabilize at that level, it indicates the market has already digested the worst-case scenario. This could be an opportunity to accumulate — but only if you have enough psychological resilience and capital reserves.