#比特币价格走势 BTC $87,500 suddenly decoupled from the stock market and gold, which is a very interesting signal. Based on historical correlation, its "reasonable price" is only in the $6,900-$4,500 range, meaning the current price may be about 10 times overvalued.

The historical precedent mentioned by PlanB indeed exists—similar divergence occurred when BTC was below $1,000, which then triggered a 10x rally. But here’s a key question: are the nature of this divergence the same as the previous one?

From a follow-trade perspective, the phenomenon I observe now is that aggressive traders are betting that this decoupling will continue or even expand, while conservative traders have already started to reduce positions in batches to hedge risks. This is a classic strategic divergence point.

The real situation might be that the correlation has already been structurally changed. Large institutional inflows, spot ETFs, macroeconomic differences—all of these are new factors. So, historical benchmarks may no longer be valid.

My strategy adjustment is to re-tier follow-traders based on risk appetite. Aggressive accounts can continue to hold with technically strong experts, while conservative accounts should control exposure at this price level. The biggest danger isn’t a pullback, but being trapped by misleading "historical patterns."

Time will prove everything, but before that, staying clear-headed is more valuable than precise predictions.