The whale's crypto maneuvers: analysis of the 63 million short position on Ethereum

The Ethereum market is still under tension after a crypto whale placed a massive $63 million bearish bet, aiming at breaking the resistance between $3,200 and $3,400. At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3.11K with a modest movement of +0.23% in the last 24 hours, while the altcoin’s market capitalization reached $375.59B. The real question remains: will Ethereum break through this psychological barrier, or will we see a significant retracement?

Technical Indicators and Overbought Signals

Looking at the Ethereum chart, technical indicators tell an intriguing story. The RSI stands at 70.60, clearly signaling overbought conditions that historically precede price corrections. The MACD simultaneously shows a decrease in bullish momentum – a warning sign for those hoping for further gains. This combination of signals suggests that the resistance between $3,200 and $3,400 represents a true market breaking point.

The crypto whale’s position and liquidation risk

The crypto whale structured its bet with 3x leverage, risking $63 million in a short position. This means the liquidation price of the position is at $4,545. If Ethereum surpasses this resistance level, the whale risks full liquidation with significant losses. However, considering the historical behavior of whales in the crypto market, this could be a calculated tactical bet – an attempt to test the market resistance before potential bullish moves.

Liquidity clusters and the role of the $3,000 support

Ethereum’s liquidity heatmap reveals significant concentrations around the $3,000 level, creating what analysts call a “crucial battleground.” If the resistance between $3,200 and $3,400 holds – as suggested by technical indicators – it is highly likely that Ethereum will retreat toward this support level. Historically, large leveraged positions aggregated around key levels trigger rapid and violent price movements, amplifying both losses and gains.

Ethereum in Q1: seasonal rebound in sight?

Historical data shows that Ethereum has frequently posted bullish performance in the first quarter of the year, even after turbulent periods in the previous quarter. With 2026 now underway, many traders hope to replicate this seasonal pattern. Even if Ethereum fails to break through the $3,400 resistance in the short term, the arrival of Q1 could still offer buying opportunities for bulls, especially if demand begins to flow again around lower support levels.

What to expect in the next moves

The most likely scenario according to technical analysis is a retracement toward $3,000 if the current resistance holds. At that point, the concentrated liquidity could trigger a crucial directional move – both downward and upward. The crypto whale and other major players are closely watching these key levels, aware that any price movement in the current zone could quickly amplify in both directions.

In summary, Ethereum stands at a critical crossroads. The combination of technical overbought signals, psychological resistance, and massive short positions creates an environment where volatility remains the only predictable aspect. The next decisive test will come when the price reaches the $3,000 level, where the battle between bullish and bearish whales could determine the next cycle’s direction.