Recently, the market has been buzzing around US employment data. In December, non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, far below market expectations, and the total new jobs for 2025 are just 584,000, marking the "worst" employment year since 2020. Although the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 4.4%, the signals are quite clear—the labor market is clearly weakening.

Does this sound like good news? Some industry voices interpret it this way: poor employment → difficulty for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening → expectations of rate cuts rise → liquidity is released → cryptocurrency prices increase. The logic sounds smooth, but reality is often more complex.

From another perspective, worsening employment data is essentially a pre-signal of an economic recession. If unemployment continues to rise, consumption will be hit first, and risk-averse sentiment will also increase. At this point, capital tends to flow into traditional safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold, rather than high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The so-called "liquidity injection" benefits may be offset by the larger force of "economic recession risk."

There are two recent details worth paying close attention to:

**1. CPI data tomorrow night.** Will tariffs, energy, and other factors push up core inflation? If there are clear signs of inflation rebounding, the Federal Reserve will be forced to hold off on rate cuts even if it sees employment difficulties. This is the most direct bearish impact on the crypto market.

**2. The Q4 earnings season on Wall Street begins.** The performance and expectations of major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup for 2026 are crucial. The "ammunition" of institutional investors often reveals clues in these earnings reports.

Bottom line: Don’t be swayed by a single piece of good news. The logical chain between macroeconomic data points is more decisive for market direction than surface-level results.