Many people are currently watching ETH oscillate around $3100, seemingly calm on the surface but with underlying currents surging. This kind of situation is extremely dangerous for traders; what appears to be a directionless market is actually the time when the risk is greatest.

I have been exploring the crypto market for 8 years, experienced the 2021 bear market turning point and the industry crisis in 2023, so I am no stranger to this market rhythm. But frankly, the current volatility is more confusing than ever—most participants simply cannot see through the logic behind it, and can only blindly navigate the game of "either harvesting others or being harvested."

**Regarding liquidation, first, let's clarify**

Many newcomers confuse the concepts of "loss" and "liquidation." The former is just unrealized paper loss, while the latter is the nightmare of leveraged trading. Using 10x leverage to go long ETH, for example, once the price falls below your margin level, the exchange will forcibly close your position—note, at the worst possible price. Your principal could instantly be wiped out, and more terrifyingly, these large sell orders resulting from forced liquidations will stack up, forming what is called a "liquidation waterfall." Like a domino chain reaction, once the first falls, the subsequent ones cannot be stopped.

**What do the data say?**

Looking at the distribution of positions on mainstream trading platforms makes this clear. Currently, about $900 million in long positions are piled up below the $3000 level, while over $1.1 billion in shorts are pressing at the $3200 mark. These two levels have long surpassed the traditional notions of support and resistance; they have evolved into the "life and death lines" for both bulls and bears—whoever gets broken first will face a chain reaction of liquidations.

In this confrontation, the market could turn one-sided at any moment. Whether it breaks upward or downward, it will trigger a wave of stop-loss and liquidation orders. Participants need to be highly alert because, in such an environment, seemingly stable price levels actually conceal enormous risk exposure.